Skip to main content
icon for Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

icon for Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

$562,540 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$562,540 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$176,712 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pedro Sánchez leads a minority coalition government that lost its parliamentary majority after Junts withdrew support in late 2025, forcing operation on a rolled-over 2023 budget for a third consecutive year. Multiple corruption convictions and ongoing investigations have implicated close allies, including the 24-year prison sentence handed to former transport minister José Luis Ábalos in June 2026, plus cases involving Sánchez’s brother and wife. Recent crises over record wildfires and a large migrant influx into Ceuta have added pressure. Sánchez has pledged to serve until the latest possible general election in August 2027, but plans to table a 2027 budget in September could force a snap vote if rejected, as opposition parties and some former allies signal opposition. Polling shows the center-right PP holding a consistent lead.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$562,540
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pedro Sánchez leads a minority coalition government that lost its parliamentary majority after Junts withdrew support in late 2025, forcing operation on a rolled-over 2023 budget for a third consecutive year. Multiple corruption convictions and ongoing investigations have implicated close allies, including the 24-year prison sentence handed to former transport minister José Luis Ábalos in June 2026, plus cases involving Sánchez’s brother and wife. Recent crises over record wildfires and a large migrant influx into Ceuta have added pressure. Sánchez has pledged to serve until the latest possible general election in August 2027, but plans to table a 2027 budget in September could force a snap vote if rejected, as opposition parties and some former allies signal opposition. Polling shows the center-right PP holding a consistent lead.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$562,540
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?

42%
icon for Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

93%
icon for Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

14%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 14%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" has generated $562.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.