**Below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong has positioned the <425 mm outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability.** Through August 20, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded just 212.8 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453.2 mm, with several early-month days showing zero or trace amounts amid relatively stable high-pressure conditions. Recent model guidance and official forecasts indicate continued thunderstorm activity driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea, but totals for the final week appear unlikely to close the gap fully. Historical August variability (ranging from under 150 mm to over 600 mm in recent decades) and the short remaining window reinforce trader focus on this deficit, with higher bins reflecting only modest upside risk from intensified monsoon or tropical influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 57%
475-500mm 32.2%
525-550mm 25.1%
500-525mm 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
57%
425-450mm
13%
450-475mm
22%
475-500mm
26%
500-525mm
22%
525-550mm
25%
550-600mm
8%
600-650mm
8%
650-700mm
8%
700mm+
3%
<425mm 57%
475-500mm 32.2%
525-550mm 25.1%
500-525mm 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$3,365 Vol.
57%
425-450mm
$251 Vol.
13%
450-475mm
$580 Vol.
22%
475-500mm
$285 Vol.
26%
500-525mm
$149 Vol.
22%
525-550mm
$199 Vol.
25%
550-600mm
$164 Vol.
8%
600-650mm
$340 Vol.
8%
650-700mm
$346 Vol.
8%
700mm+
$1,979 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong has positioned the <425 mm outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability.** Through August 20, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded just 212.8 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453.2 mm, with several early-month days showing zero or trace amounts amid relatively stable high-pressure conditions. Recent model guidance and official forecasts indicate continued thunderstorm activity driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea, but totals for the final week appear unlikely to close the gap fully. Historical August variability (ranging from under 150 mm to over 600 mm in recent decades) and the short remaining window reinforce trader focus on this deficit, with higher bins reflecting only modest upside risk from intensified monsoon or tropical influences.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$7,657End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong has positioned the <425 mm outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability.** Through August 20, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded just 212.8 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453.2 mm, with several early-month days showing zero or trace amounts amid relatively stable high-pressure conditions. Recent model guidance and official forecasts indicate continued thunderstorm activity driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea, but totals for the final week appear unlikely to close the gap fully. Historical August variability (ranging from under 150 mm to over 600 mm in recent decades) and the short remaining window reinforce trader focus on this deficit, with higher bins reflecting only modest upside risk from intensified monsoon or tropical influences.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,657End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Below-average August rainfall in Hong Kong has positioned the <425 mm outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability.** Through August 20, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded just 212.8 mm, well below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 453.2 mm, with several early-month days showing zero or trace amounts amid relatively stable high-pressure conditions. Recent model guidance and official forecasts indicate continued thunderstorm activity driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea, but totals for the final week appear unlikely to close the gap fully. Historical August variability (ranging from under 150 mm to over 600 mm in recent decades) and the short remaining window reinforce trader focus on this deficit, with higher bins reflecting only modest upside risk from intensified monsoon or tropical influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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