Recent polls from Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix place BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt, consistent with the narrow 3–5% band holding the highest implied probability. The party is contesting a state election for the first time after securing 11.3% in the 2025 federal vote there, yet state-level support has settled lower amid competition from established parties and a 5% threshold that has proven difficult for newcomers. Sahra Wagenknecht has conducted multiple campaign events alongside lead candidates Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig, emphasizing an opposition role, an independent minister-president supported by shifting majorities, and rejection of coalitions while signaling openness to issue-based engagement that includes the AfD. CDU warnings that BSW votes could indirectly aid AfD majorities have featured in coverage, but no major polling shifts have occurred in the final weeks. These dynamics—stable survey results near the hurdle, first-time structural challenges, and late-campaign visibility—anchor trader expectations around the 3–5% range ahead of the September 6 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
3-5% 53%
5-7% 24%
<3% 22%
7%+ 8.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<3%
22%
3-5%
53%
5-7%
24%
7%+
8%
3-5% 53%
5-7% 24%
<3% 22%
7%+ 8.1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<3%
$83 Vol.
22%
3-5%
$68 Vol.
53%
5-7%
$16 Vol.
24%
7%+
$16 Vol.
8%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls from Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix place BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt, consistent with the narrow 3–5% band holding the highest implied probability. The party is contesting a state election for the first time after securing 11.3% in the 2025 federal vote there, yet state-level support has settled lower amid competition from established parties and a 5% threshold that has proven difficult for newcomers. Sahra Wagenknecht has conducted multiple campaign events alongside lead candidates Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig, emphasizing an opposition role, an independent minister-president supported by shifting majorities, and rejection of coalitions while signaling openness to issue-based engagement that includes the AfD. CDU warnings that BSW votes could indirectly aid AfD majorities have featured in coverage, but no major polling shifts have occurred in the final weeks. These dynamics—stable survey results near the hurdle, first-time structural challenges, and late-campaign visibility—anchor trader expectations around the 3–5% range ahead of the September 6 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$183End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls from Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix place BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt, consistent with the narrow 3–5% band holding the highest implied probability. The party is contesting a state election for the first time after securing 11.3% in the 2025 federal vote there, yet state-level support has settled lower amid competition from established parties and a 5% threshold that has proven difficult for newcomers. Sahra Wagenknecht has conducted multiple campaign events alongside lead candidates Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig, emphasizing an opposition role, an independent minister-president supported by shifting majorities, and rejection of coalitions while signaling openness to issue-based engagement that includes the AfD. CDU warnings that BSW votes could indirectly aid AfD majorities have featured in coverage, but no major polling shifts have occurred in the final weeks. These dynamics—stable survey results near the hurdle, first-time structural challenges, and late-campaign visibility—anchor trader expectations around the 3–5% range ahead of the September 6 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$183End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Infratest dimap, INSA, and pollytix place BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt, consistent with the narrow 3–5% band holding the highest implied probability. The party is contesting a state election for the first time after securing 11.3% in the 2025 federal vote there, yet state-level support has settled lower amid competition from established parties and a 5% threshold that has proven difficult for newcomers. Sahra Wagenknecht has conducted multiple campaign events alongside lead candidates Thomas Schulze and Claudia Wittig, emphasizing an opposition role, an independent minister-president supported by shifting majorities, and rejection of coalitions while signaling openness to issue-based engagement that includes the AfD. CDU warnings that BSW votes could indirectly aid AfD majorities have featured in coverage, but no major polling shifts have occurred in the final weeks. These dynamics—stable survey results near the hurdle, first-time structural challenges, and late-campaign visibility—anchor trader expectations around the 3–5% range ahead of the September 6 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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