Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with strong results on agentic coding, frontend development, and long-horizon benchmarks like GDPval and AA-Briefcase, has elevated its standing among AI agent labs and driven market-implied odds near 50 percent for third place by September 30. OpenAI follows closely at around 39 percent thanks to its Assistants API, GPT-5.6 family, and established developer ecosystem for custom agents, while smaller probabilities for labs such as Google, Anthropic, and DeepSeek reflect narrower leads in tool-use frameworks or multimodal orchestration. The tight spread across many contenders underscores uncertainty in exact third-place ranking, as incremental September updates, open-weight adoption, or new SDK features could easily reorder positions among frontier labs focused on autonomous workflows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 49.6%
OpenAI 39.4%
Z.ai 4.0%
DeepSeek 4.0%
$29,445 Vol.
$29,445 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
50%
OpenAI
39%
Z.ai
4%
DeepSeek
4%
4%
Anthropic
2%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 49.6%
OpenAI 39.4%
Z.ai 4.0%
DeepSeek 4.0%
$29,445 Vol.
$29,445 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$19,582 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$1,685 Vol.
39%
Z.ai
$1,877 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$343 Vol.
4%
$380 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$2,096 Vol.
2%
Meta
$207 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$241 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$296 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$293 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$393 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$279 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$330 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$271 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$266 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$271 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$316 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with strong results on agentic coding, frontend development, and long-horizon benchmarks like GDPval and AA-Briefcase, has elevated its standing among AI agent labs and driven market-implied odds near 50 percent for third place by September 30. OpenAI follows closely at around 39 percent thanks to its Assistants API, GPT-5.6 family, and established developer ecosystem for custom agents, while smaller probabilities for labs such as Google, Anthropic, and DeepSeek reflect narrower leads in tool-use frameworks or multimodal orchestration. The tight spread across many contenders underscores uncertainty in exact third-place ranking, as incremental September updates, open-weight adoption, or new SDK features could easily reorder positions among frontier labs focused on autonomous workflows.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$29,445End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with strong results on agentic coding, frontend development, and long-horizon benchmarks like GDPval and AA-Briefcase, has elevated its standing among AI agent labs and driven market-implied odds near 50 percent for third place by September 30. OpenAI follows closely at around 39 percent thanks to its Assistants API, GPT-5.6 family, and established developer ecosystem for custom agents, while smaller probabilities for labs such as Google, Anthropic, and DeepSeek reflect narrower leads in tool-use frameworks or multimodal orchestration. The tight spread across many contenders underscores uncertainty in exact third-place ranking, as incremental September updates, open-weight adoption, or new SDK features could easily reorder positions among frontier labs focused on autonomous workflows.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$29,445End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with strong results on agentic coding, frontend development, and long-horizon benchmarks like GDPval and AA-Briefcase, has elevated its standing among AI agent labs and driven market-implied odds near 50 percent for third place by September 30. OpenAI follows closely at around 39 percent thanks to its Assistants API, GPT-5.6 family, and established developer ecosystem for custom agents, while smaller probabilities for labs such as Google, Anthropic, and DeepSeek reflect narrower leads in tool-use frameworks or multimodal orchestration. The tight spread across many contenders underscores uncertainty in exact third-place ranking, as incremental September updates, open-weight adoption, or new SDK features could easily reorder positions among frontier labs focused on autonomous workflows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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