Trader consensus on the third-best AI agent lab by end of September shows a closely contested field, with "Other," several anonymous companies, and Moonshot each carrying roughly 50 percent implied probability. This even split highlights uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agent performance in areas like autonomous task execution, tool integration, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 39.4 percent, reflecting its established large language model leadership yet slower perceived progress on specialized agents compared to nimbler competitors. Lower odds for Google, Anthropic, Meta, and others signal market views of capability gaps. Upcoming model releases or public capability demos in the next few weeks represent the main swing factors that could break the deadlock before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 49.6%
OpenAI 39.4%
Z.ai 4.1%
DeepSeek 3.9%
$29,425 Vol.
$29,425 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
50%
OpenAI
39%
Z.ai
4%
DeepSeek
4%
4%
Anthropic
2%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Mistral
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 49.6%
OpenAI 39.4%
Z.ai 4.1%
DeepSeek 3.9%
$29,425 Vol.
$29,425 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$19,562 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$1,685 Vol.
39%
Z.ai
$1,877 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$343 Vol.
4%
$380 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$2,096 Vol.
2%
Meta
$207 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$241 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$296 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$293 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$393 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$279 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$271 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$266 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$271 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$316 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the third-best AI agent lab by end of September shows a closely contested field, with "Other," several anonymous companies, and Moonshot each carrying roughly 50 percent implied probability. This even split highlights uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agent performance in areas like autonomous task execution, tool integration, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 39.4 percent, reflecting its established large language model leadership yet slower perceived progress on specialized agents compared to nimbler competitors. Lower odds for Google, Anthropic, Meta, and others signal market views of capability gaps. Upcoming model releases or public capability demos in the next few weeks represent the main swing factors that could break the deadlock before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$29,425End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the third-best AI agent lab by end of September shows a closely contested field, with "Other," several anonymous companies, and Moonshot each carrying roughly 50 percent implied probability. This even split highlights uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agent performance in areas like autonomous task execution, tool integration, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 39.4 percent, reflecting its established large language model leadership yet slower perceived progress on specialized agents compared to nimbler competitors. Lower odds for Google, Anthropic, Meta, and others signal market views of capability gaps. Upcoming model releases or public capability demos in the next few weeks represent the main swing factors that could break the deadlock before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$29,425End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the third-best AI agent lab by end of September shows a closely contested field, with "Other," several anonymous companies, and Moonshot each carrying roughly 50 percent implied probability. This even split highlights uncertainty over which labs will demonstrate superior agent performance in areas like autonomous task execution, tool integration, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks. OpenAI trails at 39.4 percent, reflecting its established large language model leadership yet slower perceived progress on specialized agents compared to nimbler competitors. Lower odds for Google, Anthropic, Meta, and others signal market views of capability gaps. Upcoming model releases or public capability demos in the next few weeks represent the main swing factors that could break the deadlock before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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