Alibaba's recent Qwen3.8-Max release, demonstrating top-tier results on math benchmarks like MATH-500 and strong reasoning capabilities, drives trader consensus toward its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September. This reflects Alibaba's accelerated investment in open-weight models optimized for STEM tasks amid China's competitive AI push. Other labs remain closely matched around 50% odds due to ongoing model iterations from OpenAI's reported mathematical advances and Google's Gemini updates, though lower probabilities for Meta, Anthropic, and others highlight narrower recent gains in arena-specific math performance. Key catalysts ahead include any late-August or September benchmark updates or new releases that could shift lab rankings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 57%
OpenAI 20%
Google 13%
Z.ai 4.9%
$31,735 Vol.
$31,735 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
57%
OpenAI
20%
13%
Z.ai
5%
Moonshot
4%
Baidu
4%
Anthropic
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
6%
DeepSeek
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 57%
OpenAI 20%
Google 13%
Z.ai 4.9%
$31,735 Vol.
$31,735 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
$7,795 Vol.
57%
OpenAI
$4,325 Vol.
20%
$3,310 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$876 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$865 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$1,526 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$1,962 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$892 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,743 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$846 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$825 Vol.
1%
Meta
$868 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$814 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$793 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$868 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$713 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$606 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$575 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$837 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$698 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's recent Qwen3.8-Max release, demonstrating top-tier results on math benchmarks like MATH-500 and strong reasoning capabilities, drives trader consensus toward its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September. This reflects Alibaba's accelerated investment in open-weight models optimized for STEM tasks amid China's competitive AI push. Other labs remain closely matched around 50% odds due to ongoing model iterations from OpenAI's reported mathematical advances and Google's Gemini updates, though lower probabilities for Meta, Anthropic, and others highlight narrower recent gains in arena-specific math performance. Key catalysts ahead include any late-August or September benchmark updates or new releases that could shift lab rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$31,735End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's recent Qwen3.8-Max release, demonstrating top-tier results on math benchmarks like MATH-500 and strong reasoning capabilities, drives trader consensus toward its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September. This reflects Alibaba's accelerated investment in open-weight models optimized for STEM tasks amid China's competitive AI push. Other labs remain closely matched around 50% odds due to ongoing model iterations from OpenAI's reported mathematical advances and Google's Gemini updates, though lower probabilities for Meta, Anthropic, and others highlight narrower recent gains in arena-specific math performance. Key catalysts ahead include any late-August or September benchmark updates or new releases that could shift lab rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$31,735End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's recent Qwen3.8-Max release, demonstrating top-tier results on math benchmarks like MATH-500 and strong reasoning capabilities, drives trader consensus toward its 57.5% implied probability for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-September. This reflects Alibaba's accelerated investment in open-weight models optimized for STEM tasks amid China's competitive AI push. Other labs remain closely matched around 50% odds due to ongoing model iterations from OpenAI's reported mathematical advances and Google's Gemini updates, though lower probabilities for Meta, Anthropic, and others highlight narrower recent gains in arena-specific math performance. Key catalysts ahead include any late-August or September benchmark updates or new releases that could shift lab rankings before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions