Recent UK GDP data and forecaster consensus point to subdued 2026 growth near 1%, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of a 1-2% annual outcome. Q1 real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but underlying momentum remains weak amid a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and spare capacity. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted CPI to 2.6% in June, with Bank of England projections showing a potential peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026, prompting the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. Independent forecasts from the OBR, IMF, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, reflecting these headwinds while acknowledging risks of further downside if geopolitical disruptions intensify or domestic demand falters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1-2% 72.0%
0-1% 12%
<0 10.4%
2-3% 2.3%
$81,395 Vol.
$81,395 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
10%
0-1%
12%
1-2%
72%
2-3%
2%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 72.0%
0-1% 12%
<0 10.4%
2-3% 2.3%
$81,395 Vol.
$81,395 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,524 Vol.
10%
0-1%
$19,850 Vol.
12%
1-2%
$29,233 Vol.
72%
2-3%
$4,586 Vol.
2%
3-4%
$3,534 Vol.
2%
4-5%
$8,715 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$3,951 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and forecaster consensus point to subdued 2026 growth near 1%, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of a 1-2% annual outcome. Q1 real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but underlying momentum remains weak amid a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and spare capacity. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted CPI to 2.6% in June, with Bank of England projections showing a potential peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026, prompting the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. Independent forecasts from the OBR, IMF, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, reflecting these headwinds while acknowledging risks of further downside if geopolitical disruptions intensify or domestic demand falters.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$81,395End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent UK GDP data and forecaster consensus point to subdued 2026 growth near 1%, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of a 1-2% annual outcome. Q1 real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but underlying momentum remains weak amid a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and spare capacity. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted CPI to 2.6% in June, with Bank of England projections showing a potential peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026, prompting the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. Independent forecasts from the OBR, IMF, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, reflecting these headwinds while acknowledging risks of further downside if geopolitical disruptions intensify or domestic demand falters.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$81,395End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK GDP data and forecaster consensus point to subdued 2026 growth near 1%, supporting the 72% market-implied probability of a 1-2% annual outcome. Q1 real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but underlying momentum remains weak amid a loosening labor market (unemployment near 5%) and spare capacity. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions have lifted CPI to 2.6% in June, with Bank of England projections showing a potential peak near 3.2% in Q4 2026, prompting the MPC to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. Independent forecasts from the OBR, IMF, and NIESR cluster between 0.9% and 1.1%, reflecting these headwinds while acknowledging risks of further downside if geopolitical disruptions intensify or domestic demand falters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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