Recent UK data and Bank of England projections highlight subdued momentum as the main factor anchoring Polymarket odds near 0.2–0.5% QoQ for Q3 2026 GDP. Q2 preliminary growth printed 0.4%, but underlying activity slowed to just 0.1% amid weak PMI readings, softening household spending, and the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Forecasters including the BoE, OECD, and HM Treasury panel anticipate quarterly expansion near 0.2% or lower through year-end, reflecting wider slack and cautious business investment. Key swing factors include the August–September PMI releases, CPI trajectory, and any de-escalation in geopolitical risks that could lift demand. The tight spread between the top three buckets underscores uncertainty around whether growth stabilizes modestly positive or tips toward flat-to-negative territory before official Q3 figures arrive in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4–0.5% 25%
0.2–0.3% 23%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
19%
0.0–0.1%
18%
0.2–0.3%
23%
0.4–0.5%
25%
0.6–0.7%
10%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
3%
0.4–0.5% 25%
0.2–0.3% 23%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$1,945 Vol.
19%
0.0–0.1%
$3,679 Vol.
18%
0.2–0.3%
$2,044 Vol.
23%
0.4–0.5%
$715 Vol.
25%
0.6–0.7%
$203 Vol.
10%
0.8–0.9%
$190 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$200 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK data and Bank of England projections highlight subdued momentum as the main factor anchoring Polymarket odds near 0.2–0.5% QoQ for Q3 2026 GDP. Q2 preliminary growth printed 0.4%, but underlying activity slowed to just 0.1% amid weak PMI readings, softening household spending, and the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Forecasters including the BoE, OECD, and HM Treasury panel anticipate quarterly expansion near 0.2% or lower through year-end, reflecting wider slack and cautious business investment. Key swing factors include the August–September PMI releases, CPI trajectory, and any de-escalation in geopolitical risks that could lift demand. The tight spread between the top three buckets underscores uncertainty around whether growth stabilizes modestly positive or tips toward flat-to-negative territory before official Q3 figures arrive in late October.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,976End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK data and Bank of England projections highlight subdued momentum as the main factor anchoring Polymarket odds near 0.2–0.5% QoQ for Q3 2026 GDP. Q2 preliminary growth printed 0.4%, but underlying activity slowed to just 0.1% amid weak PMI readings, softening household spending, and the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Forecasters including the BoE, OECD, and HM Treasury panel anticipate quarterly expansion near 0.2% or lower through year-end, reflecting wider slack and cautious business investment. Key swing factors include the August–September PMI releases, CPI trajectory, and any de-escalation in geopolitical risks that could lift demand. The tight spread between the top three buckets underscores uncertainty around whether growth stabilizes modestly positive or tips toward flat-to-negative territory before official Q3 figures arrive in late October.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,976End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK data and Bank of England projections highlight subdued momentum as the main factor anchoring Polymarket odds near 0.2–0.5% QoQ for Q3 2026 GDP. Q2 preliminary growth printed 0.4%, but underlying activity slowed to just 0.1% amid weak PMI readings, softening household spending, and the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Forecasters including the BoE, OECD, and HM Treasury panel anticipate quarterly expansion near 0.2% or lower through year-end, reflecting wider slack and cautious business investment. Key swing factors include the August–September PMI releases, CPI trajectory, and any de-escalation in geopolitical risks that could lift demand. The tight spread between the top three buckets underscores uncertainty around whether growth stabilizes modestly positive or tips toward flat-to-negative territory before official Q3 figures arrive in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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