Recent Q2 GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace from 2.1% in Q1, tempering near-term momentum while August economist surveys lifted Q3 projections toward 2.5% on resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies. This investment-led shift offsets softer consumer spending amid constrained affordability and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3%, with tariffs and Middle East energy pressures adding downside risks alongside a softening labor market. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, pricing a competitive contest between 2.0–3.0% outcomes as the Fed holds policy at 3.50–3.75%. Key catalysts include September FOMC deliberations and the upcoming Q3 GDP release, which could shift implied probabilities depending on capex breadth and inflation trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,063 Vol.
$23,063 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,063 Vol.
$23,063 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$553 Vol.
7%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,794 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,224 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$15,648 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace from 2.1% in Q1, tempering near-term momentum while August economist surveys lifted Q3 projections toward 2.5% on resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies. This investment-led shift offsets softer consumer spending amid constrained affordability and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3%, with tariffs and Middle East energy pressures adding downside risks alongside a softening labor market. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, pricing a competitive contest between 2.0–3.0% outcomes as the Fed holds policy at 3.50–3.75%. Key catalysts include September FOMC deliberations and the upcoming Q3 GDP release, which could shift implied probabilities depending on capex breadth and inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,063End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace from 2.1% in Q1, tempering near-term momentum while August economist surveys lifted Q3 projections toward 2.5% on resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies. This investment-led shift offsets softer consumer spending amid constrained affordability and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3%, with tariffs and Middle East energy pressures adding downside risks alongside a softening labor market. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, pricing a competitive contest between 2.0–3.0% outcomes as the Fed holds policy at 3.50–3.75%. Key catalysts include September FOMC deliberations and the upcoming Q3 GDP release, which could shift implied probabilities depending on capex breadth and inflation trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,063End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace from 2.1% in Q1, tempering near-term momentum while August economist surveys lifted Q3 projections toward 2.5% on resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies. This investment-led shift offsets softer consumer spending amid constrained affordability and elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3%, with tariffs and Middle East energy pressures adding downside risks alongside a softening labor market. Trader sentiment reflects this balance, pricing a competitive contest between 2.0–3.0% outcomes as the Fed holds policy at 3.50–3.75%. Key catalysts include September FOMC deliberations and the upcoming Q3 GDP release, which could shift implied probabilities depending on capex breadth and inflation trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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