The revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored trader expectations against near-term reissuance of broad Iran oil sanction relief. That temporary June authorization had permitted production, USD-denominated sales, and related shipping/insurance services through August 21, briefly lifting Iranian exports and contributing to softer Brent and WTI prices before its withdrawal. Subsequent U.S. actions, including August sanctions targeting smuggling networks and digital asset channels, align with a renewed maximum-pressure stance that Treasury officials have signaled will intensify absent verifiable Iranian compliance on nuclear inspections and Hormuz transit. With resolution tied to official OFAC or Treasury announcements and limited time remaining before end-August deadlines, market-implied odds reflect the high bar for reversing course amid ongoing economic escalation and energy-market sensitivity to Gulf supply risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$271,849 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
4%
$271,849 Vol.
August 31
$182,967 Vol.
4%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored trader expectations against near-term reissuance of broad Iran oil sanction relief. That temporary June authorization had permitted production, USD-denominated sales, and related shipping/insurance services through August 21, briefly lifting Iranian exports and contributing to softer Brent and WTI prices before its withdrawal. Subsequent U.S. actions, including August sanctions targeting smuggling networks and digital asset channels, align with a renewed maximum-pressure stance that Treasury officials have signaled will intensify absent verifiable Iranian compliance on nuclear inspections and Hormuz transit. With resolution tied to official OFAC or Treasury announcements and limited time remaining before end-August deadlines, market-implied odds reflect the high bar for reversing course amid ongoing economic escalation and energy-market sensitivity to Gulf supply risks.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$271,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.The revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored trader expectations against near-term reissuance of broad Iran oil sanction relief. That temporary June authorization had permitted production, USD-denominated sales, and related shipping/insurance services through August 21, briefly lifting Iranian exports and contributing to softer Brent and WTI prices before its withdrawal. Subsequent U.S. actions, including August sanctions targeting smuggling networks and digital asset channels, align with a renewed maximum-pressure stance that Treasury officials have signaled will intensify absent verifiable Iranian compliance on nuclear inspections and Hormuz transit. With resolution tied to official OFAC or Treasury announcements and limited time remaining before end-August deadlines, market-implied odds reflect the high bar for reversing course amid ongoing economic escalation and energy-market sensitivity to Gulf supply risks.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$271,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The revocation of General License X on July 7, 2026, following tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored trader expectations against near-term reissuance of broad Iran oil sanction relief. That temporary June authorization had permitted production, USD-denominated sales, and related shipping/insurance services through August 21, briefly lifting Iranian exports and contributing to softer Brent and WTI prices before its withdrawal. Subsequent U.S. actions, including August sanctions targeting smuggling networks and digital asset channels, align with a renewed maximum-pressure stance that Treasury officials have signaled will intensify absent verifiable Iranian compliance on nuclear inspections and Hormuz transit. With resolution tied to official OFAC or Treasury announcements and limited time remaining before end-August deadlines, market-implied odds reflect the high bar for reversing course amid ongoing economic escalation and energy-market sensitivity to Gulf supply risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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