**US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving CAATSA sanctions imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system, which also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program.** In July 2026, President Trump stated during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift the sanctions, describing Turkey as a loyal partner and directing State, Treasury, and Defense officials to proceed, while signaling openness to F-35 sales. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps. However, as of late August 2026, sanctions remain in effect. Separate FY2020 NDAA provisions bar F-35 transfers absent certification that Turkey no longer possesses or operates the S-400, and the State Department has informed Congress that conditions are unmet. Reported talks on transferring the systems to the UAE have stalled, congressional pushback persists on both sides of the aisle, and any waiver or termination requires navigating statutory processes with review mechanisms. These legal and possession-related barriers continue to shape the timeline despite executive momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,853 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
28%
December 31
43%
$44,853 Vol.
October 31
$16,025 Vol.
28%
December 31
$14,367 Vol.
43%
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving CAATSA sanctions imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system, which also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program.** In July 2026, President Trump stated during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift the sanctions, describing Turkey as a loyal partner and directing State, Treasury, and Defense officials to proceed, while signaling openness to F-35 sales. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps. However, as of late August 2026, sanctions remain in effect. Separate FY2020 NDAA provisions bar F-35 transfers absent certification that Turkey no longer possesses or operates the S-400, and the State Department has informed Congress that conditions are unmet. Reported talks on transferring the systems to the UAE have stalled, congressional pushback persists on both sides of the aisle, and any waiver or termination requires navigating statutory processes with review mechanisms. These legal and possession-related barriers continue to shape the timeline despite executive momentum.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$44,853End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving CAATSA sanctions imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system, which also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program.** In July 2026, President Trump stated during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift the sanctions, describing Turkey as a loyal partner and directing State, Treasury, and Defense officials to proceed, while signaling openness to F-35 sales. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps. However, as of late August 2026, sanctions remain in effect. Separate FY2020 NDAA provisions bar F-35 transfers absent certification that Turkey no longer possesses or operates the S-400, and the State Department has informed Congress that conditions are unmet. Reported talks on transferring the systems to the UAE have stalled, congressional pushback persists on both sides of the aisle, and any waiver or termination requires navigating statutory processes with review mechanisms. These legal and possession-related barriers continue to shape the timeline despite executive momentum.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$44,853End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving CAATSA sanctions imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system, which also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program.** In July 2026, President Trump stated during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift the sanctions, describing Turkey as a loyal partner and directing State, Treasury, and Defense officials to proceed, while signaling openness to F-35 sales. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps. However, as of late August 2026, sanctions remain in effect. Separate FY2020 NDAA provisions bar F-35 transfers absent certification that Turkey no longer possesses or operates the S-400, and the State Department has informed Congress that conditions are unmet. Reported talks on transferring the systems to the UAE have stalled, congressional pushback persists on both sides of the aisle, and any waiver or termination requires navigating statutory processes with review mechanisms. These legal and possession-related barriers continue to shape the timeline despite executive momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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