**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems.** U.S. law under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA prohibits transfers or reintegration unless Ankara no longer possesses the systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. In July 2026, President Trump signaled support during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdogan, stating sanctions would be lifted and F-35 sales considered, raising hopes for resolving the impasse that began with Turkey’s 2019 expulsion. However, the State Department informed Congress on July 22 that conditions had not been met. Negotiations to transfer the S-400 batteries (reportedly to the UAE) have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid-for jets undelivered and Turkish manufacturing participation suspended. Congressional resistance from both parties persists, while Turkish officials express optimism about resuming production-partner roles once the core issue is addressed. Any near-term movement would require verifiable S-400 resolution or legislative action within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,508 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
31%
$41,508 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$30,059 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems.** U.S. law under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA prohibits transfers or reintegration unless Ankara no longer possesses the systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. In July 2026, President Trump signaled support during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdogan, stating sanctions would be lifted and F-35 sales considered, raising hopes for resolving the impasse that began with Turkey’s 2019 expulsion. However, the State Department informed Congress on July 22 that conditions had not been met. Negotiations to transfer the S-400 batteries (reportedly to the UAE) have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid-for jets undelivered and Turkish manufacturing participation suspended. Congressional resistance from both parties persists, while Turkish officials express optimism about resuming production-partner roles once the core issue is addressed. Any near-term movement would require verifiable S-400 resolution or legislative action within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$41,508End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems.** U.S. law under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA prohibits transfers or reintegration unless Ankara no longer possesses the systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. In July 2026, President Trump signaled support during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdogan, stating sanctions would be lifted and F-35 sales considered, raising hopes for resolving the impasse that began with Turkey’s 2019 expulsion. However, the State Department informed Congress on July 22 that conditions had not been met. Negotiations to transfer the S-400 batteries (reportedly to the UAE) have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid-for jets undelivered and Turkish manufacturing participation suspended. Congressional resistance from both parties persists, while Turkish officials express optimism about resuming production-partner roles once the core issue is addressed. Any near-term movement would require verifiable S-400 resolution or legislative action within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$41,508End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements tied to its possession of Russian S-400 air defense systems.** U.S. law under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA prohibits transfers or reintegration unless Ankara no longer possesses the systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. In July 2026, President Trump signaled support during a NATO summit meeting with President Erdogan, stating sanctions would be lifted and F-35 sales considered, raising hopes for resolving the impasse that began with Turkey’s 2019 expulsion. However, the State Department informed Congress on July 22 that conditions had not been met. Negotiations to transfer the S-400 batteries (reportedly to the UAE) have stalled as of mid-August, leaving six previously paid-for jets undelivered and Turkish manufacturing participation suspended. Congressional resistance from both parties persists, while Turkish officials express optimism about resuming production-partner roles once the core issue is addressed. Any near-term movement would require verifiable S-400 resolution or legislative action within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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