Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole speech established the dominant catalyst for the September 16 FOMC press conference, with the Fed Chair stressing that underlying inflation has not improved meaningfully after 65 months above the 2% PCE target and warning that policymakers have “work to do” if price pressures fail to moderate at sufficient speed. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and recent PCE readings near 3.7% year-over-year, trader attention centers on whether Warsh signals readiness for a 25-basis-point hike or conditions any move on the September 11 CPI release. Markets currently price in elevated odds of tightening, though political pressure from the White House adds uncertainty around forward guidance and balance-sheet policy. The upcoming data print and FOMC statement will shape whether Warsh reinforces his hawkish stance or tempers expectations for near-term action.