Anthropic's dominant position in recent benchmarks and model releases underpins the market's 70.5% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of 2026. Its Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related Mythos-class systems lead independent leaderboards on coding tasks like SWE-bench, reasoning indices, and Arena Elo ratings as of August 2026, with efficient performance at accessible pricing that rivals or exceeds competitors. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Google's Gemini models trail in composite scores despite strong showings in specific areas, while lower-ranked labs such as Moonshot and DeepSeek show incremental gains but lack comparable frontier consistency. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained 2026 releases and revenue momentum, though rapid iteration by rivals could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 70%
xAI 9.7%
Google 8%
OpenAI 8%
$773,464 Vol.
$773,464 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
70%
xAI
10%
8%
OpenAI
8%
Meta
4%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 70%
xAI 9.7%
Google 8%
OpenAI 8%
$773,464 Vol.
$773,464 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$82,088 Vol.
70%
xAI
$64,526 Vol.
10%
$39,561 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$59,574 Vol.
8%
Meta
$50,859 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$64,314 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$55,999 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$52,836 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$46,048 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$46,482 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$57,750 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$35,404 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$40,895 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$37,661 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$39,464 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's dominant position in recent benchmarks and model releases underpins the market's 70.5% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of 2026. Its Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related Mythos-class systems lead independent leaderboards on coding tasks like SWE-bench, reasoning indices, and Arena Elo ratings as of August 2026, with efficient performance at accessible pricing that rivals or exceeds competitors. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Google's Gemini models trail in composite scores despite strong showings in specific areas, while lower-ranked labs such as Moonshot and DeepSeek show incremental gains but lack comparable frontier consistency. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained 2026 releases and revenue momentum, though rapid iteration by rivals could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$773,464End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's dominant position in recent benchmarks and model releases underpins the market's 70.5% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of 2026. Its Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related Mythos-class systems lead independent leaderboards on coding tasks like SWE-bench, reasoning indices, and Arena Elo ratings as of August 2026, with efficient performance at accessible pricing that rivals or exceeds competitors. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Google's Gemini models trail in composite scores despite strong showings in specific areas, while lower-ranked labs such as Moonshot and DeepSeek show incremental gains but lack comparable frontier consistency. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained 2026 releases and revenue momentum, though rapid iteration by rivals could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$773,464End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's dominant position in recent benchmarks and model releases underpins the market's 70.5% implied probability for the company holding the best AI model by end of 2026. Its Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related Mythos-class systems lead independent leaderboards on coding tasks like SWE-bench, reasoning indices, and Arena Elo ratings as of August 2026, with efficient performance at accessible pricing that rivals or exceeds competitors. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants, xAI's Grok 4.6, and Google's Gemini models trail in composite scores despite strong showings in specific areas, while lower-ranked labs such as Moonshot and DeepSeek show incremental gains but lack comparable frontier consistency. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's sustained 2026 releases and revenue momentum, though rapid iteration by rivals could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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