US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled amid competing claims over direct versus indirect engagement, with tensions centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and compensation demands. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump asserts ongoing talks while Iranian officials describe only intermediary messaging through Oman and Pakistan, following the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland and Doha. Mediators including Qatar continue efforts to restart formal rounds, but no new high-level meetings have materialized since July. Traders weigh the 60-day framework's expiration risks against historical patterns of backchannel progress and scheduled regional summits that could unlock attendance by senior US and Iranian figures before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$256,575 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
40%
Jared Kushner
39%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
39%
Steve Witkoff
38%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
J.D. Vance
33%
Ishaq Dar
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
30%
Nick Stewart
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Rafael Grossi
13%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Pete Hegseth
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
8%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Donald Trump
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
5%
$256,575 Vol.
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$26,382 Vol.
40%
Jared Kushner
$11,300 Vol.
39%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Vol.
39%
Steve Witkoff
$15,263 Vol.
38%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,513 Vol.
34%
J.D. Vance
$17,527 Vol.
33%
Ishaq Dar
$12,662 Vol.
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,353 Vol.
30%
Nick Stewart
$4,927 Vol.
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,887 Vol.
18%
Rafael Grossi
$13,665 Vol.
13%
Marco Rubio
$13,165 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$17,224 Vol.
13%
Pete Hegseth
$14,937 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$21,484 Vol.
8%
Esmail Qaani
$10,729 Vol.
7%
Donald Trump
$2,395 Vol.
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,830 Vol.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$2,390 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled amid competing claims over direct versus indirect engagement, with tensions centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and compensation demands. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump asserts ongoing talks while Iranian officials describe only intermediary messaging through Oman and Pakistan, following the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland and Doha. Mediators including Qatar continue efforts to restart formal rounds, but no new high-level meetings have materialized since July. Traders weigh the 60-day framework's expiration risks against historical patterns of backchannel progress and scheduled regional summits that could unlock attendance by senior US and Iranian figures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$256,575End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled amid competing claims over direct versus indirect engagement, with tensions centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and compensation demands. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump asserts ongoing talks while Iranian officials describe only intermediary messaging through Oman and Pakistan, following the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland and Doha. Mediators including Qatar continue efforts to restart formal rounds, but no new high-level meetings have materialized since July. Traders weigh the 60-day framework's expiration risks against historical patterns of backchannel progress and scheduled regional summits that could unlock attendance by senior US and Iranian figures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$256,575End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled amid competing claims over direct versus indirect engagement, with tensions centered on Strait of Hormuz navigation, sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and compensation demands. As of mid-August 2026, President Trump asserts ongoing talks while Iranian officials describe only intermediary messaging through Oman and Pakistan, following the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland and Doha. Mediators including Qatar continue efforts to restart formal rounds, but no new high-level meetings have materialized since July. Traders weigh the 60-day framework's expiration risks against historical patterns of backchannel progress and scheduled regional summits that could unlock attendance by senior US and Iranian figures before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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