A below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification, underpins the 83.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season, with only three weak tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—recorded so far and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of median. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 17–24% probability of at least one Category 3+ continental U.S. landfall, implying even lower odds for a Category 4 strike on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak months remain ahead, but current steering patterns and shear favor subdued activity through November, limiting realistic pathways for the intense, organized systems needed to reach Category 4 intensity at landfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% chance
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification, underpins the 83.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season, with only three weak tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—recorded so far and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of median. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 17–24% probability of at least one Category 3+ continental U.S. landfall, implying even lower odds for a Category 4 strike on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak months remain ahead, but current steering patterns and shear favor subdued activity through November, limiting realistic pathways for the intense, organized systems needed to reach Category 4 intensity at landfall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,683End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification, underpins the 83.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season, with only three weak tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—recorded so far and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of median. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 17–24% probability of at least one Category 3+ continental U.S. landfall, implying even lower odds for a Category 4 strike on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak months remain ahead, but current steering patterns and shear favor subdued activity through November, limiting realistic pathways for the intense, organized systems needed to reach Category 4 intensity at landfall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,683End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification, underpins the 83.5% market-implied odds against any Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August update forecasts just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full season, with only three weak tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—recorded so far and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3% of median. Colorado State University and other models assign roughly 17–24% probability of at least one Category 3+ continental U.S. landfall, implying even lower odds for a Category 4 strike on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Peak months remain ahead, but current steering patterns and shear favor subdued activity through November, limiting realistic pathways for the intense, organized systems needed to reach Category 4 intensity at landfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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