**Trader consensus heavily favors 8–10 days of Claude downtime in August 2026 (75.5% implied probability), driven by a documented cluster of ten incidents spanning eight consecutive days from August 12–19.** Anthropic’s status page and third-party monitors logged repeated disruptions to claude.ai, the API, authentication, and multiple models (including Opus and Sonnet variants), with root causes tied to infrastructure strain amid rapid demand growth. Additional incidents occurred on August 5 and elevated errors on August 20, pushing the running total into the 8–10 range even before the final week of the month. Recent days (August 21–24) have shown no new outages, but the pattern of recurring issues—exacerbated by scaling challenges despite major compute investments—keeps the 5–7 bucket (15.2%) as a secondary possibility only if stability holds through month-end. Higher bins (11–13 or 14+) remain low-probability tail outcomes given the absence of widespread new failures in the latest reports. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of Anthropic’s ongoing reliability challenges in a high-growth AI environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 75%
5-7 17.1%
11-13 3.9%
14+ 1.0%
$30,634 Vol.
$30,634 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
17%
8-10
75%
11-13
4%
14+
1%
8-10 75%
5-7 17.1%
11-13 3.9%
14+ 1.0%
$30,634 Vol.
$30,634 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
5-7
$7,490 Vol.
17%
8-10
$5,992 Vol.
75%
11-13
$3,509 Vol.
4%
14+
$4,205 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).**Trader consensus heavily favors 8–10 days of Claude downtime in August 2026 (75.5% implied probability), driven by a documented cluster of ten incidents spanning eight consecutive days from August 12–19.**
Anthropic’s status page and third-party monitors logged repeated disruptions to claude.ai, the API, authentication, and multiple models (including Opus and Sonnet variants), with root causes tied to infrastructure strain amid rapid demand growth. Additional incidents occurred on August 5 and elevated errors on August 20, pushing the running total into the 8–10 range even before the final week of the month. Recent days (August 21–24) have shown no new outages, but the pattern of recurring issues—exacerbated by scaling challenges despite major compute investments—keeps the 5–7 bucket (15.2%) as a secondary possibility only if stability holds through month-end. Higher bins (11–13 or 14+) remain low-probability tail outcomes given the absence of widespread new failures in the latest reports.
Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of Anthropic’s ongoing reliability challenges in a high-growth AI environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$30,634End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).**Trader consensus heavily favors 8–10 days of Claude downtime in August 2026 (75.5% implied probability), driven by a documented cluster of ten incidents spanning eight consecutive days from August 12–19.**
Anthropic’s status page and third-party monitors logged repeated disruptions to claude.ai, the API, authentication, and multiple models (including Opus and Sonnet variants), with root causes tied to infrastructure strain amid rapid demand growth. Additional incidents occurred on August 5 and elevated errors on August 20, pushing the running total into the 8–10 range even before the final week of the month. Recent days (August 21–24) have shown no new outages, but the pattern of recurring issues—exacerbated by scaling challenges despite major compute investments—keeps the 5–7 bucket (15.2%) as a secondary possibility only if stability holds through month-end. Higher bins (11–13 or 14+) remain low-probability tail outcomes given the absence of widespread new failures in the latest reports.
Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of Anthropic’s ongoing reliability challenges in a high-growth AI environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$30,634End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 8–10 days of Claude downtime in August 2026 (75.5% implied probability), driven by a documented cluster of ten incidents spanning eight consecutive days from August 12–19.** Anthropic’s status page and third-party monitors logged repeated disruptions to claude.ai, the API, authentication, and multiple models (including Opus and Sonnet variants), with root causes tied to infrastructure strain amid rapid demand growth. Additional incidents occurred on August 5 and elevated errors on August 20, pushing the running total into the 8–10 range even before the final week of the month. Recent days (August 21–24) have shown no new outages, but the pattern of recurring issues—exacerbated by scaling challenges despite major compute investments—keeps the 5–7 bucket (15.2%) as a secondary possibility only if stability holds through month-end. Higher bins (11–13 or 14+) remain low-probability tail outcomes given the absence of widespread new failures in the latest reports. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of Anthropic’s ongoing reliability challenges in a high-growth AI environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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