Lula has not yet announced or formally submitted a new nominee to fill the Supreme Court (STF) vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement, following the Senate’s historic 42-34 rejection of Jorge Messias on April 29, 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to discuss resubmitting Messias or selecting an alternative, potentially prioritizing gender representation, amid internal resistance including from STF Justice Flávio Dino. Key drivers include Senate arithmetic, where opposition parties argue the seat should remain open until after the October 2026 presidential election, and Lula’s broader strategy to reshape the court before term limits or electoral outcomes constrain his options. Upcoming Senate sessions and any pre-election announcements could directly affect confirmation prospects and market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,477 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
11%
December 31
66%
$21,477 Vol.
September 30
$2,263 Vol.
11%
December 31
$5,465 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula has not yet announced or formally submitted a new nominee to fill the Supreme Court (STF) vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement, following the Senate’s historic 42-34 rejection of Jorge Messias on April 29, 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to discuss resubmitting Messias or selecting an alternative, potentially prioritizing gender representation, amid internal resistance including from STF Justice Flávio Dino. Key drivers include Senate arithmetic, where opposition parties argue the seat should remain open until after the October 2026 presidential election, and Lula’s broader strategy to reshape the court before term limits or electoral outcomes constrain his options. Upcoming Senate sessions and any pre-election announcements could directly affect confirmation prospects and market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$21,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula has not yet announced or formally submitted a new nominee to fill the Supreme Court (STF) vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement, following the Senate’s historic 42-34 rejection of Jorge Messias on April 29, 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to discuss resubmitting Messias or selecting an alternative, potentially prioritizing gender representation, amid internal resistance including from STF Justice Flávio Dino. Key drivers include Senate arithmetic, where opposition parties argue the seat should remain open until after the October 2026 presidential election, and Lula’s broader strategy to reshape the court before term limits or electoral outcomes constrain his options. Upcoming Senate sessions and any pre-election announcements could directly affect confirmation prospects and market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula has not yet announced or formally submitted a new nominee to fill the Supreme Court (STF) vacancy created by Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement, following the Senate’s historic 42-34 rejection of Jorge Messias on April 29, 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century. Recent reporting indicates Lula continues to discuss resubmitting Messias or selecting an alternative, potentially prioritizing gender representation, amid internal resistance including from STF Justice Flávio Dino. Key drivers include Senate arithmetic, where opposition parties argue the seat should remain open until after the October 2026 presidential election, and Lula’s broader strategy to reshape the court before term limits or electoral outcomes constrain his options. Upcoming Senate sessions and any pre-election announcements could directly affect confirmation prospects and market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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