The closely contested Alagoas Senate race for first place reflects a consolidated contest between Arthur Lira (PP) and Renan Calheiros (MDB) following Alfredo Gaspar’s early-August withdrawal to join another ticket, which redirected voter support and narrowed the field ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the top names because both Lira and Calheiros draw from established family political networks in the state, with recent officialization of Lira’s candidacy and ongoing alliance negotiations keeping momentum fluid. Marina JHC remains a visible third option in surveys, while lower-polling names show minimal movement. Any late shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout patterns among key regional blocs, or final campaign positioning could still separate the leaders before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 45%
Renan 34%
Marina JHC 22.4%
Alexandre Fleming 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
45%
Renan
34%
Marina JHC
22%
Alexandre Fleming
2%
Dr. Wanderley
1%
Mariedson
1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Arthur Lira 45%
Renan 34%
Marina JHC 22.4%
Alexandre Fleming 1.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$3,156 Vol.
45%
Renan
$3,164 Vol.
34%
Marina JHC
$341 Vol.
22%
Alexandre Fleming
$348 Vol.
2%
Dr. Wanderley
$419 Vol.
1%
Mariedson
$358 Vol.
1%
Davi Davino Filho
$263 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested Alagoas Senate race for first place reflects a consolidated contest between Arthur Lira (PP) and Renan Calheiros (MDB) following Alfredo Gaspar’s early-August withdrawal to join another ticket, which redirected voter support and narrowed the field ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the top names because both Lira and Calheiros draw from established family political networks in the state, with recent officialization of Lira’s candidacy and ongoing alliance negotiations keeping momentum fluid. Marina JHC remains a visible third option in surveys, while lower-polling names show minimal movement. Any late shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout patterns among key regional blocs, or final campaign positioning could still separate the leaders before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$8,049End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely contested Alagoas Senate race for first place reflects a consolidated contest between Arthur Lira (PP) and Renan Calheiros (MDB) following Alfredo Gaspar’s early-August withdrawal to join another ticket, which redirected voter support and narrowed the field ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the top names because both Lira and Calheiros draw from established family political networks in the state, with recent officialization of Lira’s candidacy and ongoing alliance negotiations keeping momentum fluid. Marina JHC remains a visible third option in surveys, while lower-polling names show minimal movement. Any late shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout patterns among key regional blocs, or final campaign positioning could still separate the leaders before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,049End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested Alagoas Senate race for first place reflects a consolidated contest between Arthur Lira (PP) and Renan Calheiros (MDB) following Alfredo Gaspar’s early-August withdrawal to join another ticket, which redirected voter support and narrowed the field ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the top names because both Lira and Calheiros draw from established family political networks in the state, with recent officialization of Lira’s candidacy and ongoing alliance negotiations keeping momentum fluid. Marina JHC remains a visible third option in surveys, while lower-polling names show minimal movement. Any late shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout patterns among key regional blocs, or final campaign positioning could still separate the leaders before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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