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icon for Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place

Arthur Lira 46%

Renan 37%

Marina JHC 5%

Davi Davino Filho 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Arthur Lira 46%

Renan 37%

Marina JHC 5%

Davi Davino Filho 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Arthur Lira

Arthur Lira

$3,179 Vol.

46%

icon for Renan

Renan

$3,392 Vol.

37%

icon for Marina JHC

Marina JHC

$516 Vol.

5%

icon for Davi Davino Filho

Davi Davino Filho

$430 Vol.

2%

icon for Alexandre Fleming

Alexandre Fleming

$410 Vol.

1%

icon for Mariedson

Mariedson

$463 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dr. Wanderley

Dr. Wanderley

$426 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the second seat remains tightly contested due to competitive polling trends and shifting coalitions ahead of the October 2026 vote. Recent candidate registrations formalized alliances pairing Arthur Lira with Marina JHC in one slate and Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley in another, while Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice altered the field. Surveys from June and July showed Lira gaining ground in second-preference voting, often leading or close to Renan Calheiros, with Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names like Alexandre Fleming trailing. These dynamics, combined with historical family rivalries and undecided voter shares, sustain the balanced trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where outcomes could shift with final campaign momentum or turnout patterns.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,816
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the second seat remains tightly contested due to competitive polling trends and shifting coalitions ahead of the October 2026 vote. Recent candidate registrations formalized alliances pairing Arthur Lira with Marina JHC in one slate and Renan Calheiros with Dr. Wanderley in another, while Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice altered the field. Surveys from June and July showed Lira gaining ground in second-preference voting, often leading or close to Renan Calheiros, with Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names like Alexandre Fleming trailing. These dynamics, combined with historical family rivalries and undecided voter shares, sustain the balanced trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where outcomes could shift with final campaign momentum or turnout patterns.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,816
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Arthur Lira" at 46%, followed by "Renan" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Arthur Lira" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alagoas Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.