**Trader consensus on the Polymarket (83.5% for “No”) reflects the infrequency of major revisions to the underlying carbon budget estimates that drive the Climate Clock (climateclock.world).** The clock displays a 1.5°C deadline—currently around July 22, 2029—calculated from the remaining carbon budget (roughly anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates of ~400 GtCO₂ from 2020 onward for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming) divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Only a published shift of more than 30 days in that deadline date counts as a change; ordinary countdown ticking does not. Recent Global Carbon Project data and 2026 emissions tracking show continued rates near or above this level, with no abrupt acceleration or sustained mitigation surge large enough to prompt an immediate recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute or equivalent. Updated observational warming estimates (human-induced warming near 1.24–1.36°C through recent years) and temporary 2024 exceedances of 1.5°C in some datasets have not altered the core budget trajectory enough to move the displayed deadline materially. Major authoritative updates capable of shifting the budget by the required margin are infrequent; the next comprehensive IPCC-style reassessment is not expected before late 2026 or later. While model refinements, new non-CO₂ forcing data, or accelerated policy impacts could theoretically intervene, current conditions and the cadence of scientific reporting support the high probability that the published deadline remains stable through year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket (83.5% for “No”) reflects the infrequency of major revisions to the underlying carbon budget estimates that drive the Climate Clock (climateclock.world).**
The clock displays a 1.5°C deadline—currently around July 22, 2029—calculated from the remaining carbon budget (roughly anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates of ~400 GtCO₂ from 2020 onward for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming) divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Only a published shift of more than 30 days in that deadline date counts as a change; ordinary countdown ticking does not.
Recent Global Carbon Project data and 2026 emissions tracking show continued rates near or above this level, with no abrupt acceleration or sustained mitigation surge large enough to prompt an immediate recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute or equivalent. Updated observational warming estimates (human-induced warming near 1.24–1.36°C through recent years) and temporary 2024 exceedances of 1.5°C in some datasets have not altered the core budget trajectory enough to move the displayed deadline materially.
Major authoritative updates capable of shifting the budget by the required margin are infrequent; the next comprehensive IPCC-style reassessment is not expected before late 2026 or later. While model refinements, new non-CO₂ forcing data, or accelerated policy impacts could theoretically intervene, current conditions and the cadence of scientific reporting support the high probability that the published deadline remains stable through year-end 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,678End Date
Dec 31, 2029Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus on the Polymarket (83.5% for “No”) reflects the infrequency of major revisions to the underlying carbon budget estimates that drive the Climate Clock (climateclock.world).**
The clock displays a 1.5°C deadline—currently around July 22, 2029—calculated from the remaining carbon budget (roughly anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates of ~400 GtCO₂ from 2020 onward for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming) divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Only a published shift of more than 30 days in that deadline date counts as a change; ordinary countdown ticking does not.
Recent Global Carbon Project data and 2026 emissions tracking show continued rates near or above this level, with no abrupt acceleration or sustained mitigation surge large enough to prompt an immediate recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute or equivalent. Updated observational warming estimates (human-induced warming near 1.24–1.36°C through recent years) and temporary 2024 exceedances of 1.5°C in some datasets have not altered the core budget trajectory enough to move the displayed deadline materially.
Major authoritative updates capable of shifting the budget by the required margin are infrequent; the next comprehensive IPCC-style reassessment is not expected before late 2026 or later. While model refinements, new non-CO₂ forcing data, or accelerated policy impacts could theoretically intervene, current conditions and the cadence of scientific reporting support the high probability that the published deadline remains stable through year-end 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$10,678End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the Polymarket (83.5% for “No”) reflects the infrequency of major revisions to the underlying carbon budget estimates that drive the Climate Clock (climateclock.world).** The clock displays a 1.5°C deadline—currently around July 22, 2029—calculated from the remaining carbon budget (roughly anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates of ~400 GtCO₂ from 2020 onward for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming) divided by an assumed steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Only a published shift of more than 30 days in that deadline date counts as a change; ordinary countdown ticking does not. Recent Global Carbon Project data and 2026 emissions tracking show continued rates near or above this level, with no abrupt acceleration or sustained mitigation surge large enough to prompt an immediate recalculation by the Mercator Research Institute or equivalent. Updated observational warming estimates (human-induced warming near 1.24–1.36°C through recent years) and temporary 2024 exceedances of 1.5°C in some datasets have not altered the core budget trajectory enough to move the displayed deadline materially. Major authoritative updates capable of shifting the budget by the required margin are infrequent; the next comprehensive IPCC-style reassessment is not expected before late 2026 or later. While model refinements, new non-CO₂ forcing data, or accelerated policy impacts could theoretically intervene, current conditions and the cadence of scientific reporting support the high probability that the published deadline remains stable through year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions