Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its voting history and demographics across Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding counties. Recent redistricting and the August 2026 special primary solidified Jerry Carl as the Republican nominee after a decisive win, while Democrat Clyde Jones emerged unopposed or with minimal opposition on the other side. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because past general election margins exceeded 70 points and no major polling or fundraising shifts have altered that baseline ahead of November. A late scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAL-01 House Election Winner
AL-01 House Election Winner
$47,610 Vol.
$47,610 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
2%
$47,610 Vol.
$47,610 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$21,303 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$26,306 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its voting history and demographics across Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding counties. Recent redistricting and the August 2026 special primary solidified Jerry Carl as the Republican nominee after a decisive win, while Democrat Clyde Jones emerged unopposed or with minimal opposition on the other side. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because past general election margins exceeded 70 points and no major polling or fundraising shifts have altered that baseline ahead of November. A late scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural profile.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ET
Volume
$47,610End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its voting history and demographics across Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding counties. Recent redistricting and the August 2026 special primary solidified Jerry Carl as the Republican nominee after a decisive win, while Democrat Clyde Jones emerged unopposed or with minimal opposition on the other side. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because past general election margins exceeded 70 points and no major polling or fundraising shifts have altered that baseline ahead of November. A late scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural profile.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,610End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its voting history and demographics across Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding counties. Recent redistricting and the August 2026 special primary solidified Jerry Carl as the Republican nominee after a decisive win, while Democrat Clyde Jones emerged unopposed or with minimal opposition on the other side. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent because past general election margins exceeded 70 points and no major polling or fundraising shifts have altered that baseline ahead of November. A late scandal, health event affecting the frontrunner, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability events given the district's structural profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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