Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker faces Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral margins, combined with Smucker’s unopposed primary win and established incumbency, supports the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90%. Mannion’s primary victory and campaign have not produced notable shifts in visibility, fundraising, or polling that would challenge the partisan baseline. With no significant late-cycle developments, endorsements, or external events altering the race dynamics as of late August, the implied probabilities align with historical patterns for this safely Republican seat ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
$17,974 Vol.
$17,974 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
$17,974 Vol.
$17,974 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$10,310 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$7,664 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker faces Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral margins, combined with Smucker’s unopposed primary win and established incumbency, supports the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90%. Mannion’s primary victory and campaign have not produced notable shifts in visibility, fundraising, or polling that would challenge the partisan baseline. With no significant late-cycle developments, endorsements, or external events altering the race dynamics as of late August, the implied probabilities align with historical patterns for this safely Republican seat ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$17,974End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker faces Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral margins, combined with Smucker’s unopposed primary win and established incumbency, supports the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90%. Mannion’s primary victory and campaign have not produced notable shifts in visibility, fundraising, or polling that would challenge the partisan baseline. With no significant late-cycle developments, endorsements, or external events altering the race dynamics as of late August, the implied probabilities align with historical patterns for this safely Republican seat ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,974End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker faces Democratic nominee Nancy Mannion in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral margins, combined with Smucker’s unopposed primary win and established incumbency, supports the current trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 90%. Mannion’s primary victory and campaign have not produced notable shifts in visibility, fundraising, or polling that would challenge the partisan baseline. With no significant late-cycle developments, endorsements, or external events altering the race dynamics as of late August, the implied probabilities align with historical patterns for this safely Republican seat ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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