Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a strong position in New York’s 11th congressional district, a Staten Island-based seat with a consistent Republican lean shown in its partisan voting index and recent election results. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting Malliotakis’s prior victories by comfortable margins, absence of primary opposition, and the Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis advancing from a low-profile June primary. Trader consensus at 93-94% for the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and limited recent developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 2026 general election. A major national Democratic surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-breaking local controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such scenarios remain low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
$25,875 Vol.
$25,875 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
8%
$25,875 Vol.
$25,875 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$12,781 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$13,094 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a strong position in New York’s 11th congressional district, a Staten Island-based seat with a consistent Republican lean shown in its partisan voting index and recent election results. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting Malliotakis’s prior victories by comfortable margins, absence of primary opposition, and the Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis advancing from a low-profile June primary. Trader consensus at 93-94% for the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and limited recent developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 2026 general election. A major national Democratic surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-breaking local controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such scenarios remain low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$25,875End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a strong position in New York’s 11th congressional district, a Staten Island-based seat with a consistent Republican lean shown in its partisan voting index and recent election results. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting Malliotakis’s prior victories by comfortable margins, absence of primary opposition, and the Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis advancing from a low-profile June primary. Trader consensus at 93-94% for the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and limited recent developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 2026 general election. A major national Democratic surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-breaking local controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such scenarios remain low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,875End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a strong position in New York’s 11th congressional district, a Staten Island-based seat with a consistent Republican lean shown in its partisan voting index and recent election results. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican, reflecting Malliotakis’s prior victories by comfortable margins, absence of primary opposition, and the Democratic nominee Michael DeCillis advancing from a low-profile June primary. Trader consensus at 93-94% for the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and limited recent developments capable of shifting the balance before the November 2026 general election. A major national Democratic surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-breaking local controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such scenarios remain low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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