Incumbent Betty McCollum's strong position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district drives the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in this race. The district's consistent D+18 partisan lean, McCollum's long tenure since 2001, and her decisive primary victory over challenger Aswar Rahman on August 11 reinforce this edge. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural barriers in a seat rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus reflects limited signs of a national shift or local upset that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$23,826 Vol.
$23,826 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$23,826 Vol.
$23,826 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,902 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,925 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Betty McCollum's strong position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district drives the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in this race. The district's consistent D+18 partisan lean, McCollum's long tenure since 2001, and her decisive primary victory over challenger Aswar Rahman on August 11 reinforce this edge. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural barriers in a seat rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus reflects limited signs of a national shift or local upset that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,826End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Betty McCollum's strong position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district drives the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in this race. The district's consistent D+18 partisan lean, McCollum's long tenure since 2001, and her decisive primary victory over challenger Aswar Rahman on August 11 reinforce this edge. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural barriers in a seat rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus reflects limited signs of a national shift or local upset that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,826End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Betty McCollum's strong position in Minnesota's 4th congressional district drives the Democratic Party's 94.5% implied probability in this race. The district's consistent D+18 partisan lean, McCollum's long tenure since 2001, and her decisive primary victory over challenger Aswar Rahman on August 11 reinforce this edge. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural barriers in a seat rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus reflects limited signs of a national shift or local upset that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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