Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the party's nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary and previously won reelection with over 88 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, George McDermott, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, fundraising gaps, and voter registration advantages that shape trader consensus around the 98.7 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unanticipated national Republican surge could theoretically alter the trajectory, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$46,408 Vol.
$46,408 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
<1%
$46,408 Vol.
$46,408 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,929 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$25,480 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the party's nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary and previously won reelection with over 88 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, George McDermott, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, fundraising gaps, and voter registration advantages that shape trader consensus around the 98.7 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unanticipated national Republican surge could theoretically alter the trajectory, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,408End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the party's nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary and previously won reelection with over 88 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, George McDermott, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, fundraising gaps, and voter registration advantages that shape trader consensus around the 98.7 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unanticipated national Republican surge could theoretically alter the trajectory, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,408End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the party's nomination after prevailing in the June 2026 primary and previously won reelection with over 88 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, George McDermott, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure, fundraising gaps, and voter registration advantages that shape trader consensus around the 98.7 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory. A late-breaking scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unanticipated national Republican surge could theoretically alter the trajectory, though no such developments have surfaced in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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