Sarah Elfreth’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors trader consensus in Maryland’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid D or Safe D with a D+12 partisan voting index. She secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Bernard Flowers emerged from a low-profile primary. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would favor the GOP challenger, sustains the wide implied probability gap. A national political realignment, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-03 House Election Winner
MD-03 House Election Winner
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,975 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$24,788 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors trader consensus in Maryland’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid D or Safe D with a D+12 partisan voting index. She secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Bernard Flowers emerged from a low-profile primary. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would favor the GOP challenger, sustains the wide implied probability gap. A national political realignment, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,762End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors trader consensus in Maryland’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid D or Safe D with a D+12 partisan voting index. She secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Bernard Flowers emerged from a low-profile primary. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would favor the GOP challenger, sustains the wide implied probability gap. A national political realignment, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,762End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sarah Elfreth’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors trader consensus in Maryland’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid D or Safe D with a D+12 partisan voting index. She secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 78 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Bernard Flowers emerged from a low-profile primary. The district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments that would favor the GOP challenger, sustains the wide implied probability gap. A national political realignment, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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