Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent June primary win have anchored Democratic trader consensus in New Jersey's 11th district. As the incumbent facing Republican Joe Hathaway in the November general election, Mejia benefits from the district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Hathaway encounters structural headwinds in this suburban seat, which has trended toward Democrats. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate controversies, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$39,548 Vol.
$39,548 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$39,548 Vol.
$39,548 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,573 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,975 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent June primary win have anchored Democratic trader consensus in New Jersey's 11th district. As the incumbent facing Republican Joe Hathaway in the November general election, Mejia benefits from the district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Hathaway encounters structural headwinds in this suburban seat, which has trended toward Democrats. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate controversies, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,548End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent June primary win have anchored Democratic trader consensus in New Jersey's 11th district. As the incumbent facing Republican Joe Hathaway in the November general election, Mejia benefits from the district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Hathaway encounters structural headwinds in this suburban seat, which has trended toward Democrats. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate controversies, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,548End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory and subsequent June primary win have anchored Democratic trader consensus in New Jersey's 11th district. As the incumbent facing Republican Joe Hathaway in the November general election, Mejia benefits from the district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. Hathaway encounters structural headwinds in this suburban seat, which has trended toward Democrats. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate controversies, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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