South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee Marty Jackley at 93.5 percent. The state has not elected a Democrat to the House since 2008, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Jackley secured the GOP nomination with 79 percent in the June 2026 primary after incumbent Dusty Johnson vacated the seat to run for governor; Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed. Low Democratic organizational presence, consistent statewide partisan voting patterns, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforce the current odds. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or national electoral wave large enough to overcome the district’s structural Republican advantage would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$28,768 Vol.
$28,768 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$28,768 Vol.
$28,768 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$21,079 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$7,688 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee Marty Jackley at 93.5 percent. The state has not elected a Democrat to the House since 2008, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Jackley secured the GOP nomination with 79 percent in the June 2026 primary after incumbent Dusty Johnson vacated the seat to run for governor; Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed. Low Democratic organizational presence, consistent statewide partisan voting patterns, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforce the current odds. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or national electoral wave large enough to overcome the district’s structural Republican advantage would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$28,768End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee Marty Jackley at 93.5 percent. The state has not elected a Democrat to the House since 2008, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Jackley secured the GOP nomination with 79 percent in the June 2026 primary after incumbent Dusty Johnson vacated the seat to run for governor; Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed. Low Democratic organizational presence, consistent statewide partisan voting patterns, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforce the current odds. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or national electoral wave large enough to overcome the district’s structural Republican advantage would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,768End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains a strongly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee Marty Jackley at 93.5 percent. The state has not elected a Democrat to the House since 2008, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Jackley secured the GOP nomination with 79 percent in the June 2026 primary after incumbent Dusty Johnson vacated the seat to run for governor; Democrat Nikki Gronli advanced unopposed. Low Democratic organizational presence, consistent statewide partisan voting patterns, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforce the current odds. A late-breaking scandal, health issue, or national electoral wave large enough to overcome the district’s structural Republican advantage would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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