Wyoming's at-large House seat carries a longstanding Republican structural advantage rooted in the state's voting patterns, with the party holding the district for decades and no Democratic victory since the 1970s. The open seat—following incumbent Harriet Hageman's Senate bid—produced a crowded August 18 Republican primary won by Secretary of State Chuck Gray, while the Democratic primary yielded Lisa Kinney as nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 97.7% market consensus on Republican victory. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals from Democrats. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, candidate health event, or national political realignment of historic scale before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
$44,175 Vol.
$44,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
98%
Democratic Party
<1%
$44,175 Vol.
$44,175 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,234 Vol.
98%
Democratic Party
$23,941 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large House seat carries a longstanding Republican structural advantage rooted in the state's voting patterns, with the party holding the district for decades and no Democratic victory since the 1970s. The open seat—following incumbent Harriet Hageman's Senate bid—produced a crowded August 18 Republican primary won by Secretary of State Chuck Gray, while the Democratic primary yielded Lisa Kinney as nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 97.7% market consensus on Republican victory. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals from Democrats. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, candidate health event, or national political realignment of historic scale before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$44,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large House seat carries a longstanding Republican structural advantage rooted in the state's voting patterns, with the party holding the district for decades and no Democratic victory since the 1970s. The open seat—following incumbent Harriet Hageman's Senate bid—produced a crowded August 18 Republican primary won by Secretary of State Chuck Gray, while the Democratic primary yielded Lisa Kinney as nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 97.7% market consensus on Republican victory. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals from Democrats. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, candidate health event, or national political realignment of historic scale before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's at-large House seat carries a longstanding Republican structural advantage rooted in the state's voting patterns, with the party holding the district for decades and no Democratic victory since the 1970s. The open seat—following incumbent Harriet Hageman's Senate bid—produced a crowded August 18 Republican primary won by Secretary of State Chuck Gray, while the Democratic primary yielded Lisa Kinney as nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the 97.7% market consensus on Republican victory. Trader positioning reflects these fundamentals and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals from Democrats. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to an unforeseen scandal, candidate health event, or national political realignment of historic scale before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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