OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launched on September 3 with a staged rollout to select Daybreak organizations first, followed by ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise users, the API, Azure, and AWS Bedrock. The primary driver of market odds is OpenAI's September 1 disclosure that Astra is its first model to hit the "Critical" cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework, enabling unaided discovery and exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities. This prompted paused internal work, isolated testing, stronger weight protections, and limits on advanced cyber features while broader access expands. Traders weigh the model's strong benchmarks in agentic tasks and computer use against potential regulatory pressure, self-imposed pauses, or competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key upcoming catalysts include full rollout completion and any new safety evaluations or government actions by late September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
4%
October 31
33%
$329 Vol.
September 30
$299 Vol.
4%
October 31
$30 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model is generally removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launched on September 3 with a staged rollout to select Daybreak organizations first, followed by ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise users, the API, Azure, and AWS Bedrock. The primary driver of market odds is OpenAI's September 1 disclosure that Astra is its first model to hit the "Critical" cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework, enabling unaided discovery and exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities. This prompted paused internal work, isolated testing, stronger weight protections, and limits on advanced cyber features while broader access expands. Traders weigh the model's strong benchmarks in agentic tasks and computer use against potential regulatory pressure, self-imposed pauses, or competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key upcoming catalysts include full rollout completion and any new safety evaluations or government actions by late September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model is generally removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$329End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model is generally removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launched on September 3 with a staged rollout to select Daybreak organizations first, followed by ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise users, the API, Azure, and AWS Bedrock. The primary driver of market odds is OpenAI's September 1 disclosure that Astra is its first model to hit the "Critical" cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework, enabling unaided discovery and exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities. This prompted paused internal work, isolated testing, stronger weight protections, and limits on advanced cyber features while broader access expands. Traders weigh the model's strong benchmarks in agentic tasks and computer use against potential regulatory pressure, self-imposed pauses, or competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key upcoming catalysts include full rollout completion and any new safety evaluations or government actions by late September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra model is generally removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.
A general removal of public access means the model is no longer available for use by the general public in the United States through any of OpenAI's ordinary public channels, including its consumer applications and self-serve API. Removal from a single channel while another public channel retains access, removals applying only to limited groups (e.g., foreign nationals), payment or pricing changes, and restrictions on particular capabilities or features of an otherwise accessible model will not qualify. A general removal qualifies even if access is retained by limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms, approved-access programs, or individuals with security clearance).
Removal of individual modes, snapshots, or reduced-capability variants will not qualify while the model itself remains publicly accessible; however, if only reduced-capability variants (e.g., mini or nano variants) remain accessible, the model will be considered removed.
A removal qualifies only if it is announced by OpenAI, or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, that public access has been removed rather than temporarily interrupted; outages, capacity limitations, or lack of access due to technical issues will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$329End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launched on September 3 with a staged rollout to select Daybreak organizations first, followed by ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise users, the API, Azure, and AWS Bedrock. The primary driver of market odds is OpenAI's September 1 disclosure that Astra is its first model to hit the "Critical" cybersecurity threshold under its Preparedness Framework, enabling unaided discovery and exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities. This prompted paused internal work, isolated testing, stronger weight protections, and limits on advanced cyber features while broader access expands. Traders weigh the model's strong benchmarks in agentic tasks and computer use against potential regulatory pressure, self-imposed pauses, or competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google DeepMind. Key upcoming catalysts include full rollout completion and any new safety evaluations or government actions by late September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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