The Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting occurs against persistent annual inflation near 6 percent, driven by one-off factors including elevated fuel prices following refinery disruptions. After the July 24 cut of 25 basis points to 14 percent—the tenth consecutive easing but smaller than some anticipated—the central bank raised its 2026 inflation projection to 6–7 percent and signaled a higher average key rate path of 14.5–14.6 percent for the year. Officials have highlighted pro-inflationary risks from accelerated lending, more accommodative fiscal policy, and external conditions, while noting limited scope for further easing without clearer disinflation evidence. Governor Elvira Nabiullina has left open the possibility of a hike if risks materialize, though the baseline favors stability. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring no change at the intermediate September session, with modest probability assigned to an additional cut and negligible odds of tightening.