Elevated Selic rates near 14% have cooled domestic demand after Q1 2026’s robust 1.1% QoQ expansion, anchoring market-implied odds on the 0.3%–0.5% (54.5%) and 0.0%–0.2% (43.0%) bands. The August 17 IBC-Br proxy registered just 0.2% QoQ growth, reflecting modest industry and agriculture gains offset by a services contraction amid fading fiscal stimulus. This data point has reinforced trader consensus around subdued sequential expansion, consistent with full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0%. With the official IBGE release scheduled for September 1, any revisions to the proxy or shifts in monetary policy expectations could still influence final resolution within the narrow 0.0%–0.5% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 54.4%
0.0%–0.2% 43.5%
0.6%–0.8% 3.7%
0.9%–1.1% 1.1%
$53,970 Vol.
$53,970 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
44%
0.3%–0.5%
54%
0.6%–0.8%
4%
0.9%–1.1%
1%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 54.4%
0.0%–0.2% 43.5%
0.6%–0.8% 3.7%
0.9%–1.1% 1.1%
$53,970 Vol.
$53,970 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,498 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,944 Vol.
44%
0.3%–0.5%
$21,591 Vol.
54%
0.6%–0.8%
$15,883 Vol.
4%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,642 Vol.
1%
1.2%–1.4%
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 14% have cooled domestic demand after Q1 2026’s robust 1.1% QoQ expansion, anchoring market-implied odds on the 0.3%–0.5% (54.5%) and 0.0%–0.2% (43.0%) bands. The August 17 IBC-Br proxy registered just 0.2% QoQ growth, reflecting modest industry and agriculture gains offset by a services contraction amid fading fiscal stimulus. This data point has reinforced trader consensus around subdued sequential expansion, consistent with full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0%. With the official IBGE release scheduled for September 1, any revisions to the proxy or shifts in monetary policy expectations could still influence final resolution within the narrow 0.0%–0.5% range.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$53,970End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 14% have cooled domestic demand after Q1 2026’s robust 1.1% QoQ expansion, anchoring market-implied odds on the 0.3%–0.5% (54.5%) and 0.0%–0.2% (43.0%) bands. The August 17 IBC-Br proxy registered just 0.2% QoQ growth, reflecting modest industry and agriculture gains offset by a services contraction amid fading fiscal stimulus. This data point has reinforced trader consensus around subdued sequential expansion, consistent with full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0%. With the official IBGE release scheduled for September 1, any revisions to the proxy or shifts in monetary policy expectations could still influence final resolution within the narrow 0.0%–0.5% range.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$53,970End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 14% have cooled domestic demand after Q1 2026’s robust 1.1% QoQ expansion, anchoring market-implied odds on the 0.3%–0.5% (54.5%) and 0.0%–0.2% (43.0%) bands. The August 17 IBC-Br proxy registered just 0.2% QoQ growth, reflecting modest industry and agriculture gains offset by a services contraction amid fading fiscal stimulus. This data point has reinforced trader consensus around subdued sequential expansion, consistent with full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0%. With the official IBGE release scheduled for September 1, any revisions to the proxy or shifts in monetary policy expectations could still influence final resolution within the narrow 0.0%–0.5% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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