Brazil's Q3 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth market reflects trader focus on the Central Bank of Brazil's restrictive Selic rate stance and softening domestic demand amid persistent inflation pressures. Recent industrial production and retail sales data have pointed to modest expansion near 0.2%, tempered by weaker commodity export momentum and global trade uncertainties. Labor market resilience and fiscal spending continue to support a narrow positive band, yet downside risks from tighter credit conditions keep negative outcomes priced at combined 28.5% implied probability. The spread across leading bins (32.5% for 0.0-0.2% and 23.3% for 0.3-0.5%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the official IBGE release, typically in November, with any surprise in September inflation or export volumes likely to shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0% to 0.2% 33%
0.3% to 0.5% 23.1%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$12,850 Vol.
$12,850 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
9%
-0.3% to -0.1%
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
33%
0.3% to 0.5%
23%
0.6% to 0.8%
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
5%
≥1.2%
<1%
0.0% to 0.2% 33%
0.3% to 0.5% 23.1%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$12,850 Vol.
$12,850 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$225 Vol.
9%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$2,248 Vol.
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
$7,807 Vol.
33%
0.3% to 0.5%
$1,920 Vol.
23%
0.6% to 0.8%
$214 Vol.
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
$235 Vol.
5%
≥1.2%
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q3 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth market reflects trader focus on the Central Bank of Brazil's restrictive Selic rate stance and softening domestic demand amid persistent inflation pressures. Recent industrial production and retail sales data have pointed to modest expansion near 0.2%, tempered by weaker commodity export momentum and global trade uncertainties. Labor market resilience and fiscal spending continue to support a narrow positive band, yet downside risks from tighter credit conditions keep negative outcomes priced at combined 28.5% implied probability. The spread across leading bins (32.5% for 0.0-0.2% and 23.3% for 0.3-0.5%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the official IBGE release, typically in November, with any surprise in September inflation or export volumes likely to shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$12,850End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q3 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth market reflects trader focus on the Central Bank of Brazil's restrictive Selic rate stance and softening domestic demand amid persistent inflation pressures. Recent industrial production and retail sales data have pointed to modest expansion near 0.2%, tempered by weaker commodity export momentum and global trade uncertainties. Labor market resilience and fiscal spending continue to support a narrow positive band, yet downside risks from tighter credit conditions keep negative outcomes priced at combined 28.5% implied probability. The spread across leading bins (32.5% for 0.0-0.2% and 23.3% for 0.3-0.5%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the official IBGE release, typically in November, with any surprise in September inflation or export volumes likely to shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$12,850End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q3 2026 quarter-over-quarter GDP growth market reflects trader focus on the Central Bank of Brazil's restrictive Selic rate stance and softening domestic demand amid persistent inflation pressures. Recent industrial production and retail sales data have pointed to modest expansion near 0.2%, tempered by weaker commodity export momentum and global trade uncertainties. Labor market resilience and fiscal spending continue to support a narrow positive band, yet downside risks from tighter credit conditions keep negative outcomes priced at combined 28.5% implied probability. The spread across leading bins (32.5% for 0.0-0.2% and 23.3% for 0.3-0.5%) highlights uncertainty ahead of the official IBGE release, typically in November, with any surprise in September inflation or export volumes likely to shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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