Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 primary in California’s 46th congressional district, securing over half the vote against Republican David Pan and several Democratic challengers. The seat’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and all major forecasters’ “Safe” or “Solid” Democratic ratings underpin traders’ 95% consensus for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Low early visibility for the Republican challenger and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter registration further reinforce the position. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican wave, a serious health or ethics issue for the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make an upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,687 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,536 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 primary in California’s 46th congressional district, securing over half the vote against Republican David Pan and several Democratic challengers. The seat’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and all major forecasters’ “Safe” or “Solid” Democratic ratings underpin traders’ 95% consensus for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Low early visibility for the Republican challenger and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter registration further reinforce the position. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican wave, a serious health or ethics issue for the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 primary in California’s 46th congressional district, securing over half the vote against Republican David Pan and several Democratic challengers. The seat’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and all major forecasters’ “Safe” or “Solid” Democratic ratings underpin traders’ 95% consensus for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Low early visibility for the Republican challenger and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter registration further reinforce the position. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican wave, a serious health or ethics issue for the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 primary in California’s 46th congressional district, securing over half the vote against Republican David Pan and several Democratic challengers. The seat’s D+10 Partisan Voter Index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and all major forecasters’ “Safe” or “Solid” Democratic ratings underpin traders’ 95% consensus for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Low early visibility for the Republican challenger and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter registration further reinforce the position. Late developments such as an unexpected national Republican wave, a serious health or ethics issue for the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make an upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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