Traders price the 40-64 bracket highest at 50.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range or lower amid variable daily output. Recent weeks show an average near 18–25 posts per day during quieter stretches, with multiple September periods landing at 40-64 or below when major news cycles or platform controversies are absent. The upcoming weekend lacks announced product launches, policy statements, or high-engagement events that typically drive reply volume and original posts. Lower brackets capture the possibility of further moderation, while higher ranges remain discounted absent catalysts that have previously pushed totals above 100 in active periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 52%
<40 28%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.6%
NEW
$19,581 Vol.
NEW
$19,581 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
<40
28%
40-64
52%
65-89
19%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
1%
240+
<1%
40-64 52%
<40 28%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.6%
NEW
$19,581 Vol.
NEW
$19,581 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
<40
$3,319 Vol.
28%
40-64
$2,841 Vol.
52%
65-89
$2,519 Vol.
19%
90-114
$2,026 Vol.
3%
115-139
$2,927 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,883 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,269 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,059 Vol.
1%
240+
$717 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders price the 40-64 bracket highest at 50.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range or lower amid variable daily output. Recent weeks show an average near 18–25 posts per day during quieter stretches, with multiple September periods landing at 40-64 or below when major news cycles or platform controversies are absent. The upcoming weekend lacks announced product launches, policy statements, or high-engagement events that typically drive reply volume and original posts. Lower brackets capture the possibility of further moderation, while higher ranges remain discounted absent catalysts that have previously pushed totals above 100 in active periods.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$19,581End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders price the 40-64 bracket highest at 50.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range or lower amid variable daily output. Recent weeks show an average near 18–25 posts per day during quieter stretches, with multiple September periods landing at 40-64 or below when major news cycles or platform controversies are absent. The upcoming weekend lacks announced product launches, policy statements, or high-engagement events that typically drive reply volume and original posts. Lower brackets capture the possibility of further moderation, while higher ranges remain discounted absent catalysts that have previously pushed totals above 100 in active periods.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$19,581End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders price the 40-64 bracket highest at 50.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day windows have repeatedly settled in that range or lower amid variable daily output. Recent weeks show an average near 18–25 posts per day during quieter stretches, with multiple September periods landing at 40-64 or below when major news cycles or platform controversies are absent. The upcoming weekend lacks announced product launches, policy statements, or high-engagement events that typically drive reply volume and original posts. Lower brackets capture the possibility of further moderation, while higher ranges remain discounted absent catalysts that have previously pushed totals above 100 in active periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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