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icon for Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

icon for Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

$17,260 Vol.

Sep 13, 2026
Polymarket

$17,260 Vol.

Polymarket

September 13

$12,976 Vol.

2%

September 15

$2,012 Vol.

86%

September 17

$352 Vol.

97%

September 19

$703 Vol.

59%

September 21

$1,217 Vol.

100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s explosive domestic run, fueled by a record $360 million opening weekend and sustained holds through its sixth frame, has positioned it just $10 million shy of Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936.6 million all-time U.S. record as of early September 2026. The Tom Holland-led MCU title has already eclipsed TFA globally at $2.41 billion, passed Avengers: Endgame domestically, and demonstrated exceptional legs with minimal competition until Practical Magic 2 arrives this weekend. Traders are watching daily updates and theater counts closely, as the film’s trajectory suggests it will claim the domestic crown imminently barring an unusually steep drop.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Volume
$17,260
End Date
Sep 21, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s explosive domestic run, fueled by a record $360 million opening weekend and sustained holds through its sixth frame, has positioned it just $10 million shy of Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936.6 million all-time U.S. record as of early September 2026. The Tom Holland-led MCU title has already eclipsed TFA globally at $2.41 billion, passed Avengers: Endgame domestically, and demonstrated exceptional legs with minimal competition until Practical Magic 2 arrives this weekend. Traders are watching daily updates and theater counts closely, as the film’s trajectory suggests it will claim the domestic crown imminently barring an unusually steep drop.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Volume
$17,260
End Date
Sep 21, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 21" at 100%, followed by "September 17" at 97%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" has generated $17.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" is "September 21" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 17" at 97%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.