Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically vital sites such as Kharg Island’s military facilities, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, Abu Musa, and the Tunb islands to disrupt missile launches, air defenses, and oil infrastructure, yet no reported operations, seizures, or territorial changes have involved Farsi. Iranian statements emphasize defense of its islands and continued naval presence, with no diplomatic or military developments indicating an imminent shift in authority. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this reality through very low implied probabilities for any loss of control by late August or September 2026, consistent with the island’s limited profile relative to chokepoint or export hubs and the absence of confirmed escalation plans targeting it. Resolution would require verifiable statements or reporting confirming another state or force exercising primary governmental or military authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$174,210 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$174,210 Vol.
August 31
$165,318 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically vital sites such as Kharg Island’s military facilities, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, Abu Musa, and the Tunb islands to disrupt missile launches, air defenses, and oil infrastructure, yet no reported operations, seizures, or territorial changes have involved Farsi. Iranian statements emphasize defense of its islands and continued naval presence, with no diplomatic or military developments indicating an imminent shift in authority. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this reality through very low implied probabilities for any loss of control by late August or September 2026, consistent with the island’s limited profile relative to chokepoint or export hubs and the absence of confirmed escalation plans targeting it. Resolution would require verifiable statements or reporting confirming another state or force exercising primary governmental or military authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$174,210End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically vital sites such as Kharg Island’s military facilities, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, Abu Musa, and the Tunb islands to disrupt missile launches, air defenses, and oil infrastructure, yet no reported operations, seizures, or territorial changes have involved Farsi. Iranian statements emphasize defense of its islands and continued naval presence, with no diplomatic or military developments indicating an imminent shift in authority. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this reality through very low implied probabilities for any loss of control by late August or September 2026, consistent with the island’s limited profile relative to chokepoint or export hubs and the absence of confirmed escalation plans targeting it. Resolution would require verifiable statements or reporting confirming another state or force exercising primary governmental or military authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$174,210End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically vital sites such as Kharg Island’s military facilities, Qeshm, Hengam, Larak, Abu Musa, and the Tunb islands to disrupt missile launches, air defenses, and oil infrastructure, yet no reported operations, seizures, or territorial changes have involved Farsi. Iranian statements emphasize defense of its islands and continued naval presence, with no diplomatic or military developments indicating an imminent shift in authority. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this reality through very low implied probabilities for any loss of control by late August or September 2026, consistent with the island’s limited profile relative to chokepoint or export hubs and the absence of confirmed escalation plans targeting it. Resolution would require verifiable statements or reporting confirming another state or force exercising primary governmental or military authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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