Iran maintains sovereignty over Hengam Island, a strategically located site in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz that forms part of Iran's layered defensive positions alongside islands such as Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz. In mid-July 2026, US projectiles struck the island amid the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iranian shipping disruptions that began earlier in the year. Analysts note that any effort to seize or neutralize such islands would require substantial amphibious operations due to Iranian missile, drone, and artillery coverage. Iran continues diplomatic outreach, including talks with Oman on maritime management frameworks, while rejecting broader regional arrangements. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a near-term loss of Iranian control, reflecting the absence of confirmed occupation or handover amid ongoing regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$121,849 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$121,849 Vol.
August 31
$94,301 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereignty over Hengam Island, a strategically located site in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz that forms part of Iran's layered defensive positions alongside islands such as Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz. In mid-July 2026, US projectiles struck the island amid the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iranian shipping disruptions that began earlier in the year. Analysts note that any effort to seize or neutralize such islands would require substantial amphibious operations due to Iranian missile, drone, and artillery coverage. Iran continues diplomatic outreach, including talks with Oman on maritime management frameworks, while rejecting broader regional arrangements. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a near-term loss of Iranian control, reflecting the absence of confirmed occupation or handover amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains sovereignty over Hengam Island, a strategically located site in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz that forms part of Iran's layered defensive positions alongside islands such as Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz. In mid-July 2026, US projectiles struck the island amid the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iranian shipping disruptions that began earlier in the year. Analysts note that any effort to seize or neutralize such islands would require substantial amphibious operations due to Iranian missile, drone, and artillery coverage. Iran continues diplomatic outreach, including talks with Oman on maritime management frameworks, while rejecting broader regional arrangements. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a near-term loss of Iranian control, reflecting the absence of confirmed occupation or handover amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains sovereignty over Hengam Island, a strategically located site in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz that forms part of Iran's layered defensive positions alongside islands such as Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz. In mid-July 2026, US projectiles struck the island amid the broader Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iranian shipping disruptions that began earlier in the year. Analysts note that any effort to seize or neutralize such islands would require substantial amphibious operations due to Iranian missile, drone, and artillery coverage. Iran continues diplomatic outreach, including talks with Oman on maritime management frameworks, while rejecting broader regional arrangements. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a near-term loss of Iranian control, reflecting the absence of confirmed occupation or handover amid ongoing regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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