Google's latest Gemini 3.1 Pro and related variants have posted mid-40s percent scores on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-crafted benchmark testing frontier reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64-65 percent and Meta’s Muse Spark at 62 percent as of August 2026. Rapid gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch reflect broader LLM progress on hard, contamination-resistant questions, yet Google’s emphasis on multimodal capabilities, long context, and efficiency has not yet closed the gap on pure reasoning benchmarks. Traders are watching for new Gemini releases or reasoning-focused updates in the second half of 2026 that could lift scores toward the 50-55 percent range before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$40,920 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
71%
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29%
65%+
14%
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$40,920 Vol.
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$18,559 Vol.
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$5,698 Vol.
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$7,328 Vol.
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$4,988 Vol.
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$4,348 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's latest Gemini 3.1 Pro and related variants have posted mid-40s percent scores on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-crafted benchmark testing frontier reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64-65 percent and Meta’s Muse Spark at 62 percent as of August 2026. Rapid gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch reflect broader LLM progress on hard, contamination-resistant questions, yet Google’s emphasis on multimodal capabilities, long context, and efficiency has not yet closed the gap on pure reasoning benchmarks. Traders are watching for new Gemini releases or reasoning-focused updates in the second half of 2026 that could lift scores toward the 50-55 percent range before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$40,920End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's latest Gemini 3.1 Pro and related variants have posted mid-40s percent scores on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-crafted benchmark testing frontier reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64-65 percent and Meta’s Muse Spark at 62 percent as of August 2026. Rapid gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch reflect broader LLM progress on hard, contamination-resistant questions, yet Google’s emphasis on multimodal capabilities, long context, and efficiency has not yet closed the gap on pure reasoning benchmarks. Traders are watching for new Gemini releases or reasoning-focused updates in the second half of 2026 that could lift scores toward the 50-55 percent range before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$40,920End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google's latest Gemini 3.1 Pro and related variants have posted mid-40s percent scores on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-crafted benchmark testing frontier reasoning across math, physics, biology, and humanities, well behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 at 64-65 percent and Meta’s Muse Spark at 62 percent as of August 2026. Rapid gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch reflect broader LLM progress on hard, contamination-resistant questions, yet Google’s emphasis on multimodal capabilities, long context, and efficiency has not yet closed the gap on pure reasoning benchmarks. Traders are watching for new Gemini releases or reasoning-focused updates in the second half of 2026 that could lift scores toward the 50-55 percent range before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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