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Tech·AI

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

icon for Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Tech·AI

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

$40,980 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$40,980 Vol.

Polymarket

50%+

$18,559 Vol.

71%

55%+

$5,759 Vol.

54%

60%+

$7,328 Vol.

29%

65%+

$4,988 Vol.

14%

70%+

$4,348 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini family trails the HLE frontier in mid-2026, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7 Flash variants posting verified or preview scores in the mid-to-high 40s percent on the expert-level benchmark of 2,500 graduate-style questions, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55–65 % range) and OpenAI GPT-5.6 configurations. Recent Google releases, including the February 2026 Gemini 3 Deep Think update that reached 48.4 % without tools, emphasized specialized reasoning modes and agentic capabilities rather than pure HLE gains, while competitors advanced faster on multi-step academic reasoning. The market reflects ongoing gaps in deep cross-domain synthesis for Gemini despite strong multimodal and efficiency-focused Flash iterations, with trader attention on any remaining 2026 model drops, Google I/O-style announcements, or internal Deep Think scaling that could close the 5–15 point deficit before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$40,980
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini family trails the HLE frontier in mid-2026, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7 Flash variants posting verified or preview scores in the mid-to-high 40s percent on the expert-level benchmark of 2,500 graduate-style questions, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55–65 % range) and OpenAI GPT-5.6 configurations. Recent Google releases, including the February 2026 Gemini 3 Deep Think update that reached 48.4 % without tools, emphasized specialized reasoning modes and agentic capabilities rather than pure HLE gains, while competitors advanced faster on multi-step academic reasoning. The market reflects ongoing gaps in deep cross-domain synthesis for Gemini despite strong multimodal and efficiency-focused Flash iterations, with trader attention on any remaining 2026 model drops, Google I/O-style announcements, or internal Deep Think scaling that could close the 5–15 point deficit before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$40,980
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50%+" at 71%, followed by "55%+" at 54%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" has generated $41K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" is "50%+" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "55%+" at 54%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.