OpenAI models like GPT-5.6 Sol have posted strong but not leading results on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and specialized fields, with recent scores in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s percent range depending on the leaderboard and evaluation settings. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently hold the top spots at 55–65 percent through adaptive reasoning techniques and higher compute during inference, while Google’s Gemini models sit close behind. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing model releases and iterative improvements through mid-2026, with OpenAI’s position hinging on whether its next frontier updates can surpass these benchmarks before year-end resolution. Key swing factors include lab-specific scaling strategies, agentic capabilities like OpenAI’s earlier deep research gains, and any disclosed HLE-specific training adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$42,494 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI models like GPT-5.6 Sol have posted strong but not leading results on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and specialized fields, with recent scores in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s percent range depending on the leaderboard and evaluation settings. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently hold the top spots at 55–65 percent through adaptive reasoning techniques and higher compute during inference, while Google’s Gemini models sit close behind. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing model releases and iterative improvements through mid-2026, with OpenAI’s position hinging on whether its next frontier updates can surpass these benchmarks before year-end resolution. Key swing factors include lab-specific scaling strategies, agentic capabilities like OpenAI’s earlier deep research gains, and any disclosed HLE-specific training adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$42,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI models like GPT-5.6 Sol have posted strong but not leading results on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and specialized fields, with recent scores in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s percent range depending on the leaderboard and evaluation settings. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently hold the top spots at 55–65 percent through adaptive reasoning techniques and higher compute during inference, while Google’s Gemini models sit close behind. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing model releases and iterative improvements through mid-2026, with OpenAI’s position hinging on whether its next frontier updates can surpass these benchmarks before year-end resolution. Key swing factors include lab-specific scaling strategies, agentic capabilities like OpenAI’s earlier deep research gains, and any disclosed HLE-specific training adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$42,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI models like GPT-5.6 Sol have posted strong but not leading results on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-level benchmark spanning math, sciences, and specialized fields, with recent scores in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s percent range depending on the leaderboard and evaluation settings. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently hold the top spots at 55–65 percent through adaptive reasoning techniques and higher compute during inference, while Google’s Gemini models sit close behind. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing model releases and iterative improvements through mid-2026, with OpenAI’s position hinging on whether its next frontier updates can surpass these benchmarks before year-end resolution. Key swing factors include lab-specific scaling strategies, agentic capabilities like OpenAI’s earlier deep research gains, and any disclosed HLE-specific training adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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