Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and local models indicate a high near 68–71°F for San Francisco on September 5, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 70–71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow have kept daytime temperatures close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 70.1°F, limiting afternoon warming despite partial clearing. Recent days show a similar pattern, with observed highs of 68–71°F, while ensemble guidance shows low probability of significant ridging that would push readings into the mid-70s. Traders appear to be pricing in this narrow range of outcomes consistent with typical early-September conditions rather than rare heat events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 5?
70-71°F 52%
72-73°F 34%
68-69°F 12%
66-67°F 4%
$15,611 Vol.
$15,611 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
52%
72-73°F
34%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 52%
72-73°F 34%
68-69°F 12%
66-67°F 4%
$15,611 Vol.
$15,611 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
59°F or below
$559 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$722 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$254 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$482 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$744 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$1,827 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$3,612 Vol.
52%
72-73°F
$2,465 Vol.
34%
74-75°F
$2,076 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$1,744 Vol.
1%
78°F or higher
$1,126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and local models indicate a high near 68–71°F for San Francisco on September 5, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 70–71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow have kept daytime temperatures close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 70.1°F, limiting afternoon warming despite partial clearing. Recent days show a similar pattern, with observed highs of 68–71°F, while ensemble guidance shows low probability of significant ridging that would push readings into the mid-70s. Traders appear to be pricing in this narrow range of outcomes consistent with typical early-September conditions rather than rare heat events.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,611End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and local models indicate a high near 68–71°F for San Francisco on September 5, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 70–71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow have kept daytime temperatures close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 70.1°F, limiting afternoon warming despite partial clearing. Recent days show a similar pattern, with observed highs of 68–71°F, while ensemble guidance shows low probability of significant ridging that would push readings into the mid-70s. Traders appear to be pricing in this narrow range of outcomes consistent with typical early-September conditions rather than rare heat events.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,611End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and local models indicate a high near 68–71°F for San Francisco on September 5, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 70–71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and moderate onshore westerly flow have kept daytime temperatures close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 70.1°F, limiting afternoon warming despite partial clearing. Recent days show a similar pattern, with observed highs of 68–71°F, while ensemble guidance shows low probability of significant ridging that would push readings into the mid-70s. Traders appear to be pricing in this narrow range of outcomes consistent with typical early-September conditions rather than rare heat events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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