**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a September 6 high temperature of 29–30°C in Shanghai, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes of 30°C (56.5%) and 29°C (33.5%).** Recent observations show highs near 30°C on September 5 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation. Official and model guidance (including GFS-influenced and local Chinese meteorological updates) indicate similar conditions for September 6: partly cloudy to clearing skies, northeast winds of 10–20 km/h, and only low chances of light showers that are unlikely to suppress peak temperatures. This aligns with early September climatology, where the long-term average high is around 27°C, but recent days have run slightly warmer amid stable atmospheric patterns without strong cooling fronts or heavy rain systems. Model agreement is high this close to the event, with limited divergence expected in final observations. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded by Shanghai meteorological stations, typically measured in shaded conditions between 13:00–15:00 local time. Any unexpected intensification of cloud cover or rainfall could nudge readings toward 29°C, while clearer skies would favor 30°C. Lower-probability outcomes (31°C or below 29°C) remain possible only with notable forecast shifts in the final hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 6?
30°C 60%
29°C 31%
31°C 8%
28°C 4%
NEW
$13,547 Vol.
NEW
$13,547 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
31%
30°C
60%
31°C
8%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 60%
29°C 31%
31°C 8%
28°C 4%
NEW
$13,547 Vol.
NEW
$13,547 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
25°C or below
$231 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,162 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,737 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,653 Vol.
31%
30°C
$2,123 Vol.
60%
31°C
$1,625 Vol.
8%
32°C
$990 Vol.
2%
33°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$229 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a September 6 high temperature of 29–30°C in Shanghai, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes of 30°C (56.5%) and 29°C (33.5%).**
Recent observations show highs near 30°C on September 5 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation. Official and model guidance (including GFS-influenced and local Chinese meteorological updates) indicate similar conditions for September 6: partly cloudy to clearing skies, northeast winds of 10–20 km/h, and only low chances of light showers that are unlikely to suppress peak temperatures. This aligns with early September climatology, where the long-term average high is around 27°C, but recent days have run slightly warmer amid stable atmospheric patterns without strong cooling fronts or heavy rain systems.
Model agreement is high this close to the event, with limited divergence expected in final observations. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded by Shanghai meteorological stations, typically measured in shaded conditions between 13:00–15:00 local time. Any unexpected intensification of cloud cover or rainfall could nudge readings toward 29°C, while clearer skies would favor 30°C. Lower-probability outcomes (31°C or below 29°C) remain possible only with notable forecast shifts in the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,547End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a September 6 high temperature of 29–30°C in Shanghai, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes of 30°C (56.5%) and 29°C (33.5%).**
Recent observations show highs near 30°C on September 5 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation. Official and model guidance (including GFS-influenced and local Chinese meteorological updates) indicate similar conditions for September 6: partly cloudy to clearing skies, northeast winds of 10–20 km/h, and only low chances of light showers that are unlikely to suppress peak temperatures. This aligns with early September climatology, where the long-term average high is around 27°C, but recent days have run slightly warmer amid stable atmospheric patterns without strong cooling fronts or heavy rain systems.
Model agreement is high this close to the event, with limited divergence expected in final observations. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded by Shanghai meteorological stations, typically measured in shaded conditions between 13:00–15:00 local time. Any unexpected intensification of cloud cover or rainfall could nudge readings toward 29°C, while clearer skies would favor 30°C. Lower-probability outcomes (31°C or below 29°C) remain possible only with notable forecast shifts in the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,547End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a September 6 high temperature of 29–30°C in Shanghai, directly supporting the market’s leading outcomes of 30°C (56.5%) and 29°C (33.5%).** Recent observations show highs near 30°C on September 5 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation. Official and model guidance (including GFS-influenced and local Chinese meteorological updates) indicate similar conditions for September 6: partly cloudy to clearing skies, northeast winds of 10–20 km/h, and only low chances of light showers that are unlikely to suppress peak temperatures. This aligns with early September climatology, where the long-term average high is around 27°C, but recent days have run slightly warmer amid stable atmospheric patterns without strong cooling fronts or heavy rain systems. Model agreement is high this close to the event, with limited divergence expected in final observations. Key resolution factors include the official daily maximum recorded by Shanghai meteorological stations, typically measured in shaded conditions between 13:00–15:00 local time. Any unexpected intensification of cloud cover or rainfall could nudge readings toward 29°C, while clearer skies would favor 30°C. Lower-probability outcomes (31°C or below 29°C) remain possible only with notable forecast shifts in the final hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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