Persistent rain and thunderstorms driven by the advancing autumn rain front are capping solar heating in Tokyo on September 7, keeping forecast highs clustered between 26–28 °C according to consensus from JMA, ECMWF, and GFS runs. Heavy cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and frequent precipitation reduce insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing the stronger afternoon warming typical of early-September climatology around 29 °C. Southerly winds and embedded thunderstorms introduce short-term variability in peak readings, while model timing differences for the heaviest rain explain the tight spread among the leading market outcomes at 26 °C, 27 °C, and 28 °C. Updated guidance ahead of the event will clarify whether any brief clearing allows a higher spike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?
27°C 27%
28°C 22%
26°C 20%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
4%
25°C
9%
26°C
20%
27°C
27%
28°C
22%
29°C
11%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 27%
28°C 22%
26°C 20%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
$106 Vol.
1%
23°C
$83 Vol.
3%
24°C
$80 Vol.
4%
25°C
$107 Vol.
9%
26°C
$62 Vol.
20%
27°C
$514 Vol.
27%
28°C
$178 Vol.
22%
29°C
$8 Vol.
11%
30°C
$5 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and thunderstorms driven by the advancing autumn rain front are capping solar heating in Tokyo on September 7, keeping forecast highs clustered between 26–28 °C according to consensus from JMA, ECMWF, and GFS runs. Heavy cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and frequent precipitation reduce insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing the stronger afternoon warming typical of early-September climatology around 29 °C. Southerly winds and embedded thunderstorms introduce short-term variability in peak readings, while model timing differences for the heaviest rain explain the tight spread among the leading market outcomes at 26 °C, 27 °C, and 28 °C. Updated guidance ahead of the event will clarify whether any brief clearing allows a higher spike.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,249End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and thunderstorms driven by the advancing autumn rain front are capping solar heating in Tokyo on September 7, keeping forecast highs clustered between 26–28 °C according to consensus from JMA, ECMWF, and GFS runs. Heavy cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and frequent precipitation reduce insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing the stronger afternoon warming typical of early-September climatology around 29 °C. Southerly winds and embedded thunderstorms introduce short-term variability in peak readings, while model timing differences for the heaviest rain explain the tight spread among the leading market outcomes at 26 °C, 27 °C, and 28 °C. Updated guidance ahead of the event will clarify whether any brief clearing allows a higher spike.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,249End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and thunderstorms driven by the advancing autumn rain front are capping solar heating in Tokyo on September 7, keeping forecast highs clustered between 26–28 °C according to consensus from JMA, ECMWF, and GFS runs. Heavy cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90 %, and frequent precipitation reduce insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing the stronger afternoon warming typical of early-September climatology around 29 °C. Southerly winds and embedded thunderstorms introduce short-term variability in peak readings, while model timing differences for the heaviest rain explain the tight spread among the leading market outcomes at 26 °C, 27 °C, and 28 °C. Updated guidance ahead of the event will clarify whether any brief clearing allows a higher spike.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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