California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, shifts lines to favor Democrats in several districts previously held by Republicans, particularly in the Central Valley and San Diego area. This mid-decade redistricting, a direct response to maps in other states, is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five Democratic seats beyond the 43 held after 2024. With primaries completed in June 2026 and the November general election approaching, trader consensus centers on 48 seats as the most likely outcome, reflecting the map's structural impact and limited remaining competitive races. Broader midterm dynamics and candidate performance in targeted districts could still influence final totals within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated48 62%
47 11%
49+ 7.3%
46 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<43
1%
43
3%
44
1%
45
1%
46
5%
47
11%
48
47%
49+
7%
48 62%
47 11%
49+ 7.3%
46 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<43
$91 Vol.
1%
43
$91 Vol.
3%
44
$91 Vol.
1%
45
$91 Vol.
1%
46
$410 Vol.
5%
47
$2,158 Vol.
11%
48
$2,215 Vol.
47%
49+
$177 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, shifts lines to favor Democrats in several districts previously held by Republicans, particularly in the Central Valley and San Diego area. This mid-decade redistricting, a direct response to maps in other states, is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five Democratic seats beyond the 43 held after 2024. With primaries completed in June 2026 and the November general election approaching, trader consensus centers on 48 seats as the most likely outcome, reflecting the map's structural impact and limited remaining competitive races. Broader midterm dynamics and candidate performance in targeted districts could still influence final totals within a narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$5,325End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, shifts lines to favor Democrats in several districts previously held by Republicans, particularly in the Central Valley and San Diego area. This mid-decade redistricting, a direct response to maps in other states, is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five Democratic seats beyond the 43 held after 2024. With primaries completed in June 2026 and the November general election approaching, trader consensus centers on 48 seats as the most likely outcome, reflecting the map's structural impact and limited remaining competitive races. Broader midterm dynamics and candidate performance in targeted districts could still influence final totals within a narrow range.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,325End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, shifts lines to favor Democrats in several districts previously held by Republicans, particularly in the Central Valley and San Diego area. This mid-decade redistricting, a direct response to maps in other states, is projected to deliver a net gain of three to five Democratic seats beyond the 43 held after 2024. With primaries completed in June 2026 and the November general election approaching, trader consensus centers on 48 seats as the most likely outcome, reflecting the map's structural impact and limited remaining competitive races. Broader midterm dynamics and candidate performance in targeted districts could still influence final totals within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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