**Increased ICE enforcement capacity and interior arrests have driven removals higher than prior years, yet operational limits such as detention space, court processing, and repatriation logistics keep annual totals in the 400-500k range for 2026.** Fiscal-year data through mid-2026 show ICE on pace for roughly 430k–460k removals, with daily averages of 1,200–1,400 after summer surges that pushed detentions toward record levels near 70,000. Border encounters have fallen sharply, shifting focus to interior operations, while expanded hiring and temporary task forces have boosted arrests without yet scaling to the administration’s earlier 1 million target. Self-deportation claims appear in official statements but are not included in standard removal counts used by the market. Traders price the 400-500k band highest because current throughput, legal constraints, and infrastructure growth point to outcomes near recent annualized rates rather than much higher or lower brackets. Scheduled budget and capacity expansions could still adjust the final tally before year-end.