The Illinois 2nd congressional district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a D+18 Partisan Voter Index and repeated general-election margins above 25 points, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary against a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. and state Sen. Robert Peters. She now faces only token Republican opposition from Mike Noack in the November 3 general election, consistent with Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. This structural advantage and limited GOP infrastructure sustain the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the district’s voting history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$33,429 Vol.
$33,429 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$33,429 Vol.
$33,429 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,332 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$19,097 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a D+18 Partisan Voter Index and repeated general-election margins above 25 points, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary against a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. and state Sen. Robert Peters. She now faces only token Republican opposition from Mike Noack in the November 3 general election, consistent with Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. This structural advantage and limited GOP infrastructure sustain the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the district’s voting history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$33,429End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a D+18 Partisan Voter Index and repeated general-election margins above 25 points, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary against a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. and state Sen. Robert Peters. She now faces only token Republican opposition from Mike Noack in the November 3 general election, consistent with Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. This structural advantage and limited GOP infrastructure sustain the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the district’s voting history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,429End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd congressional district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a D+18 Partisan Voter Index and repeated general-election margins above 25 points, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary against a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. and state Sen. Robert Peters. She now faces only token Republican opposition from Mike Noack in the November 3 general election, consistent with Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. This structural advantage and limited GOP infrastructure sustain the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. A late scandal, significant health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the district’s voting history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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