Iran faces ongoing internal power struggles following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, which created a leadership vacuum as his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports describe a military junta consolidating influence, with public billboards highlighting generals and speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control amid economic strain and truce pressures. No confirmed coup attempt has occurred, though factional tensions and rumors of potential military moves continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,697 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,697 Vol.
December 31
$81,471 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces ongoing internal power struggles following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, which created a leadership vacuum as his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports describe a military junta consolidating influence, with public billboards highlighting generals and speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control amid economic strain and truce pressures. No confirmed coup attempt has occurred, though factional tensions and rumors of potential military moves continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces ongoing internal power struggles following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, which created a leadership vacuum as his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports describe a military junta consolidating influence, with public billboards highlighting generals and speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control amid economic strain and truce pressures. No confirmed coup attempt has occurred, though factional tensions and rumors of potential military moves continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,697End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran faces ongoing internal power struggles following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes, which created a leadership vacuum as his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained largely absent from public view. Hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations, and sidelining parliament and revolutionary institutions. Recent reports describe a military junta consolidating influence, with public billboards highlighting generals and speculation about IRGC commanders seeking greater control amid economic strain and truce pressures. No confirmed coup attempt has occurred, though factional tensions and rumors of potential military moves continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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