**Traders assign an 86% probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026 because CFTC authority has repeatedly preempted state restrictions, while congressional efforts remain stalled.** Minnesota enacted the first statewide ban in May 2026, but a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on July 27, citing likely preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. Similar litigation continues in states such as Illinois, New York, and Utah, with the CFTC actively intervening to protect its jurisdiction over event contracts. Bipartisan bills like the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act and related measures targeting sports event contracts were introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced to enactment. The CFTC’s June 2026 proposed rule and subsequent advisories outline oversight standards that permit aggregate professional and collegiate sports contracts while restricting narrower categories such as player injuries or officiating, signaling continued federal tolerance rather than prohibition. With limited legislative calendar remaining and ongoing court affirmations of CFTC primacy, the trader consensus reflects the low near-term likelihood of a comprehensive national ban.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
14% chance
$18,947 Vol.
$18,947 Vol.
Jun 29, 2026
14% chance
$18,947 Vol.
$18,947 Vol.
Jun 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026 because CFTC authority has repeatedly preempted state restrictions, while congressional efforts remain stalled.** Minnesota enacted the first statewide ban in May 2026, but a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on July 27, citing likely preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. Similar litigation continues in states such as Illinois, New York, and Utah, with the CFTC actively intervening to protect its jurisdiction over event contracts. Bipartisan bills like the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act and related measures targeting sports event contracts were introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced to enactment. The CFTC’s June 2026 proposed rule and subsequent advisories outline oversight standards that permit aggregate professional and collegiate sports contracts while restricting narrower categories such as player injuries or officiating, signaling continued federal tolerance rather than prohibition. With limited legislative calendar remaining and ongoing court affirmations of CFTC primacy, the trader consensus reflects the low near-term likelihood of a comprehensive national ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$18,947End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 86% probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026 because CFTC authority has repeatedly preempted state restrictions, while congressional efforts remain stalled.** Minnesota enacted the first statewide ban in May 2026, but a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on July 27, citing likely preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. Similar litigation continues in states such as Illinois, New York, and Utah, with the CFTC actively intervening to protect its jurisdiction over event contracts. Bipartisan bills like the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act and related measures targeting sports event contracts were introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced to enactment. The CFTC’s June 2026 proposed rule and subsequent advisories outline oversight standards that permit aggregate professional and collegiate sports contracts while restricting narrower categories such as player injuries or officiating, signaling continued federal tolerance rather than prohibition. With limited legislative calendar remaining and ongoing court affirmations of CFTC primacy, the trader consensus reflects the low near-term likelihood of a comprehensive national ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$18,947End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86% probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026 because CFTC authority has repeatedly preempted state restrictions, while congressional efforts remain stalled.** Minnesota enacted the first statewide ban in May 2026, but a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction on July 27, citing likely preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. Similar litigation continues in states such as Illinois, New York, and Utah, with the CFTC actively intervening to protect its jurisdiction over event contracts. Bipartisan bills like the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act and related measures targeting sports event contracts were introduced in the 119th Congress, yet none have advanced to enactment. The CFTC’s June 2026 proposed rule and subsequent advisories outline oversight standards that permit aggregate professional and collegiate sports contracts while restricting narrower categories such as player injuries or officiating, signaling continued federal tolerance rather than prohibition. With limited legislative calendar remaining and ongoing court affirmations of CFTC primacy, the trader consensus reflects the low near-term likelihood of a comprehensive national ban.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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